AI experts return from China stunned: The U.S. grid is so weak, the race may already be over
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I am very skeptical of any article that boldly claims that China is on the rise and the US is in decline. We've been hearing about this decades. People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP. People think the US is worse only because the US is an open country. China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse. Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Brother it sounds like you underestimate what industrializing the largest population on earth looks like. It's not just happening, it's kinda inevitable.
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I am very skeptical of any article that boldly claims that China is on the rise and the US is in decline. We've been hearing about this decades. People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP. People think the US is worse only because the US is an open country. China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse. Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
The big difference that I see is that they investes in people for a long while now. They did what they can so people can get a decent education. That's also the reason why they don't allow kids to use tiktok and so on - it's hindering the next generation's ability to think. They know that you need many intelligent people to drive whatever other innovation you want to have later.
That's why they're pulling ahead so fast while we are collapsing.
I am not even living in the US, but even here the education system is crumbling.The west has trapped itself in the thought of technology without people. The idea that few clever people can design perfect systems that drive everything for us. That we just need to support those few individuals to get maximum return.
China is supporting the broad masses.
It's like creating a fertile soil.Who knows what all the asterisks are causing in the future. But at the moment it's just no comparison. We've gone backwards, while they're so far ahead we barely see them.
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The first country to adopt LLMs for everything is the one that will collapse first. This is a race where the winners never start and at best stop before they reach the end.
AI will move past LLMs
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renowned expert in Chinese technology and founder of the media company Tech Buzz China, [Rui Ma]
Is the person they’re talking about who is “stunned” at how super double awesome China is at powering AI.
Ffffffffffffffuck this.
Eastern European born American guy who is living at eastern Europe right now.
I don't know about china, but a lot of things in the country of my birth are a lot better than USA. Energy grid and energy pricing is one of those.
I got back to country of my birth because my parent got dementia. I'm seriously considering permanently staying here. It has its drawbacks. But a lot of things are also a lot better.
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AI will move past LLMs
Maybe. Could also be that humans never invent anything that comes close to a biological brain. Either because we simply aren't smart enough, or because civilization regresses before we get there. And there's several trends going on currently which could cause civilization to regress. For example, climate change and declining birth rates (While we could set up an economic system that can deal with a shrinking and aging population, our current one cannot).
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Those things are being solved by other forms of AI, not LLMs. AlphaFold is about the most useful thing AI has done so far and it's not a chatbot.
We get access to entertainment AI, but there could be different forms of AI in use in medical science that have nothing to do with image or text generation.
AlphaFold's success seems to be largely linked to its use of attention-based architecture, similar to GPT, i.e. the architecture used by LLMs. Beyond that, they are both building on work in machine learning and statistics, so I don't think they are nearly as independent as you are making out.
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I am very skeptical of any article that boldly claims that China is on the rise and the US is in decline. We've been hearing about this decades. People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP. People think the US is worse only because the US is an open country. China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse. Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
We've been hearing about this decades.
Yes, you've been hearind that for decades, just like climate change: if you wait for an abrupt treshold with a clear before/after cut , you're going to wait for a while.
China has developed an advanced high speed trains network. You have no idea how much US looks backward on that.
China still opens coal burning power plants, jut also a very large number of renewable and nuclear power plants. They're serious about electrification.
They took the lead in scientific publication.
US needs to put up tariffs to protect its car makers from being wiped out by Chinese ones. Western car makers rely more and more on Chinese batteries suppliers.
All the signs are there. You just need to ackowledge them.
People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP.
As compared to what? In the US, corruption is legal, it's called campaign donation and SuperPAC. At this stage, elections pick which pack of oligarchs will rule: GOP donators or Dems donators.
If the system is so much better, where are the high speed trains, advanced power grid, decarbonation plan, school that can get high potentials to the top, decent healthcare system?
Where are the fruits of this less corrupt dysfunctional and incompetent system?
China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse.
Alother delusion from local US news. China is not that isolated, they have developed deep relations with a number of countries in Africa and middle east, and they're a privileged trade partner with many more. Worse even: with the current US policy of tariffs, several countries that were reluctant to have deeper ties with China are pushed in their arms.
Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Meaning what? Their high speed trains are absolutely working. In large cities, half of the cars in the street are electric cars, majority from domestic brands and a few Tesla. They have very advanced and very cheap mass transit networks.
As I was saying: it's just like global warming: if you sit and wait claiming it's not really happening and/or not that bad, you're totally unprepared when disasters hit you.
The only thing I will agree with you here is their emonomy is not half as great as they want to claim. The estate market has been in a free fall in all but the big 4 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guandong, Shenzhen).
But if the US wants to be the first power of the rest of the 21st century world, they need to wake up!
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AlphaFold's success seems to be largely linked to its use of attention-based architecture, similar to GPT, i.e. the architecture used by LLMs. Beyond that, they are both building on work in machine learning and statistics, so I don't think they are nearly as independent as you are making out.
Yeah, but LLM innovation now is not in more clever architectures, but rather larger and larger models with more training data.
I don't hate the existence of LLMs but rather how they're being shoehorned everywhere and how much power is being spent for just a little bit better results.
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I am very skeptical of any article that boldly claims that China is on the rise and the US is in decline. We've been hearing about this decades. People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP. People think the US is worse only because the US is an open country. China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse. Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Wow some real critical thinking on Lemmy for once. Thank you! I swear Lemmy is run by propaganda/tin foil hat wearers spewing so much bs rather than remembering were all suffering together at the expense of a few rich people world wide.
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We've been hearing about this decades.
Yes, you've been hearind that for decades, just like climate change: if you wait for an abrupt treshold with a clear before/after cut , you're going to wait for a while.
China has developed an advanced high speed trains network. You have no idea how much US looks backward on that.
China still opens coal burning power plants, jut also a very large number of renewable and nuclear power plants. They're serious about electrification.
They took the lead in scientific publication.
US needs to put up tariffs to protect its car makers from being wiped out by Chinese ones. Western car makers rely more and more on Chinese batteries suppliers.
All the signs are there. You just need to ackowledge them.
People underestimate just how corrupt, dysfunctional, and incompetent the Chinese system is under the CCP.
As compared to what? In the US, corruption is legal, it's called campaign donation and SuperPAC. At this stage, elections pick which pack of oligarchs will rule: GOP donators or Dems donators.
If the system is so much better, where are the high speed trains, advanced power grid, decarbonation plan, school that can get high potentials to the top, decent healthcare system?
Where are the fruits of this less corrupt dysfunctional and incompetent system?
China's isolation give it the illusion that it's better, but in reality, it's even worse.
Alother delusion from local US news. China is not that isolated, they have developed deep relations with a number of countries in Africa and middle east, and they're a privileged trade partner with many more. Worse even: with the current US policy of tariffs, several countries that were reluctant to have deeper ties with China are pushed in their arms.
Every major Chinese achievement from their mass transit system to their big corporations to their economic growth to them pulling ahead technologically to so many more, all come with big asterisks attached that make them much more questionable.
Meaning what? Their high speed trains are absolutely working. In large cities, half of the cars in the street are electric cars, majority from domestic brands and a few Tesla. They have very advanced and very cheap mass transit networks.
As I was saying: it's just like global warming: if you sit and wait claiming it's not really happening and/or not that bad, you're totally unprepared when disasters hit you.
The only thing I will agree with you here is their emonomy is not half as great as they want to claim. The estate market has been in a free fall in all but the big 4 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guandong, Shenzhen).
But if the US wants to be the first power of the rest of the 21st century world, they need to wake up!
This is the dawn of the new Chinese century. I have no doubt in 20 more years China will be in an even stronger position as the USA continues to decline.
We, the USA, could do all the stuff that would make us competitive. That would require more socialism, more taxing of billionaires, more spending in green energy, education, transportation, healthcare becoming affordable and an actual human right for all in our borders, a real plan to transition off fossil fuels and shore up our domestic energy production and electric grid.
Idk more than that of course but that's the elevator pitch.
We won't do it though because corrupt capitalism and the oligarchy.
Maybe we will if at some point enough of us are struggling but we're pretty fat and have plenty of entertainment to distract us even if we are being fucked. So ... Yeah ... Desperately hoping I'm wrong about most of my predictions, devastated as I keep seeing them come true.
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Further, fear mongering about China's data center/powergrid infrastructure superiority is also the PERFECT excuse techbros need to rationalize building data centers in parts of the US that are in desperate shortage of water for human beings and with precarious electrical grids that are ready to fail in the middle of the next heatwave.
The US is essentially in a second Civil War and this will be one of the main methods in which people are killed, i.e. purposefully setting up the conditions for people to die in a heat wave and have no water so they are desperate... and the only way people in the US are going to stomach it is if they have been truly convinced they have to accept these brutal conditions "because we are hopelessly behind China and we can't afford to stop building data centers!!".
Oh man I'd love some of what you're smoking or popping
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Maybe. Could also be that humans never invent anything that comes close to a biological brain. Either because we simply aren't smart enough, or because civilization regresses before we get there. And there's several trends going on currently which could cause civilization to regress. For example, climate change and declining birth rates (While we could set up an economic system that can deal with a shrinking and aging population, our current one cannot).
Wait, since when population is shrinking? And since when it's a bad thing too?
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Wait, since when population is shrinking? And since when it's a bad thing too?
I don't think it is shrinking globally, yet. But, some countries (e.g. South Korea) are in dire situations due to shrinking and aging population already.
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I don't think it is shrinking globally, yet. But, some countries (e.g. South Korea) are in dire situations due to shrinking and aging population already.
But it's mostly caused by social issues, imo it is nowhere near being a real problem
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But it's mostly caused by social issues, imo it is nowhere near being a real problem
I agree with your premise, but I don't think it implies your conclusion, which I disagree with.
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we considered attacking you, but couldn't think of a way to ruín anything worse than you already had. Every idea we came up with, you had already done, but worse. I spent two years writing software to take down the grid in texas, and another two getting it into your systems. Then you just did it all manually, and some nazi asshole shot the infected substation until it blew up a month later! Fuck you, i liked this job. I went to college for this shit. You have ruined me. What the fuck am i gonna do now?
-some chinese saboteur
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Maybe. Could also be that humans never invent anything that comes close to a biological brain. Either because we simply aren't smart enough, or because civilization regresses before we get there. And there's several trends going on currently which could cause civilization to regress. For example, climate change and declining birth rates (While we could set up an economic system that can deal with a shrinking and aging population, our current one cannot).
Fasciam and religion are bigger threats than 'declining birth rate', that one's just billionaire propaganda. Stop repeating it.
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I hope we loose it so we can get humbled. But if we loose, knowing how we are, we'll likely invent a reason to go to war and steal their talent.
Ai isn't an arrow, you can't loose it.
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Eastern European born American guy who is living at eastern Europe right now.
I don't know about china, but a lot of things in the country of my birth are a lot better than USA. Energy grid and energy pricing is one of those.
I got back to country of my birth because my parent got dementia. I'm seriously considering permanently staying here. It has its drawbacks. But a lot of things are also a lot better.
Sorry to hear about the health reasons. Stay connected with people local, you’ll need help, as that’s super hard. Best wishes and be nice to yourself.
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The race was over in 2021-2022 when every model that uses the only algorithmic approach we have hit a wall when they ran out of training data.
It does not matter how much power we dump into these, it has quickly diminishing results.
