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The hidden time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

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  • It's a paywalled article in Dutch, so I used AI to translate it. The dude is from The Netherlands, but he's mainly referring to the situation in Belgium (interview was in a Belgian magazine). So 'De Wever' refers to the Belgian prime minister, let me know if anything else is unclear, as I didn't check the whooole translation 🙂

    link to the article in Dutch


    This Dutch tax expert wants to overturn our tax system: “That capital gains tax you have is an excellent idea”

    Published: June 10, 2025 · By Peter Casteels

    A Dutch tax expert, Reinier Kooiman, wants to completely upend our tax system.

    Reinier Kooiman proposes abolishing all taxes and replacing them with a single wealth tax. “Why can’t the government take a small amount from your savings, but it can take 50% from your income?”

    Forget the wrangling in the De Wever government about the capital gains tax. During coalition talks, that new tax sparked the toughest debates—but after four months in power, there’s still no compromise.

    Compared to total public spending, it’s largely symbolic. In his new book, aptly titled The Strongest Shoulders, Kooiman offers a much more radical, yet well-founded, proposal: eliminate all taxes and replace them with one clear wealth tax. He’ll now try to convince you.

    That wasn’t his initial goal. Kooiman—affiliated with the University of Amsterdam and formerly at Deloitte—intended to write an academic history of our tax system. The Strongest Shoulders is partly that. He drew inspiration from medieval Italian city-states.

    Kooiman: “My research was purely historical; there was no real history of our taxes. I wanted to trace the principles behind them. Obviously, as a tax expert, I had my own ideas. But only after comparing medieval times to today did I gain new insights.

    I had never realized our system redistributes from the poor to the rich. Our taxes vastly increase inequality, while like many, I assumed the opposite. In the Italian city-states, a uniform wealth tax was levied on everyone. Primitive as it sounds, it’s fairer than today’s system.”
    How it works

    Kooiman explains: everyone pays income tax based on ability, but indirect taxes like VAT, excise, and tariffs are flat. Lower-income people spend a larger share of income on consumption, so proportionally pay more taxes.

    In countries like the Netherlands and Belgium, income inequality is moderate, but wealth inequality is extreme. Our tax system causes it: wealth is never taxed, while low- and middle-income people struggle to build wealth because they pay too much income tax.

    The wealthy can accumulate more easily. Simply raising income tax rates won’t reduce inequality; the super-rich would own an even greater share of wealth overall.
    Lessons from medieval Italy

    Kooiman: “City-states only taxed when major expenses arose—like war. If Genoa needed 4,000 libra, and total wealth was 400,000 libra, everyone paid 1% of their wealth. Tax rates varied yearly, but contributions were equal. They measured ability by wealth, not income.”
    Modern feasibility

    Kooiman admits medieval governments were smaller, less bureaucratic, and more local. Today’s centralized, anonymous systems have moved tax collection far from citizens. Governments now take ~45% of GDP in taxes without public debate over who pays.
    Why wealth tax fell out of favor

    As city-states grew, taxing wealth became complex. Since the 18th century, economists pushed income-based taxation. With capitalism’s rise, capital needed for investment—like railways—shouldn’t be taxed. Kooiman calls this “elitist rhetoric”: if total tax revenue stays the same, there’s still plenty of capital.

    No evidence suggests the wealthy manage their money better than those living off income.
    Practicality

    Belgium and the Netherlands already have inheritance taxes, meaning declaring estates isn’t too hard. Income tax on labor might be easy, but capital taxes provoke debate—just look at capital gains tax arguments.

    Wealth isn’t volatile, so it’s manageable: if someone reports much less, tax authorities can inspect.
    The exchange

    Freedom and equality guide Kooiman: tax shouldn’t redistribute wealth—redistribution should occur through government spending. People should end up equally rich before and after taxes, achieved by a flat wealth tax. A millionaire pays more in absolute terms but the same percentage—no special targeting.

    “A millionaire will pay a lot—but can’t claim they’re being singled out.”
    Rate needed

    Kooiman estimates around 8.5% for the Netherlands; Belgium would be similar. The system is simpler and cheaper. Millions of families currently pay income tax to get social benefits—without income tax, they might not need those benefits.
    Impact by age

    Yes, paying 8.5% of assets annually is steep, especially for homeowners. But young people would pay less and have more chance to buy homes; over-50s would pay more. He estimates young people would benefit and older people would see slight drawbacks.

    “On average, people under fifty would pay less; after fifty, a bit more.”

    He argues that many older people leave large inheritances—money that sits idle. Meanwhile, younger generations bear heavy income tax burdens.
    Asset scrutiny concerns

    Critics say wealth taxes mean inspecting paintings or wine cellars. Kooiman says no exemptions: otherwise, people hide value. But he believes it’s manageable until inconsistencies arise—then the tax office can investigate.
    Resistance

    “The opposition is immense: it feels like theft.”

    Kooiman responds: “Why take 50% from income but not from savings? In my system, no one can say money is taxed twice [income vs. wealth]. We all believe in rewarding work—but in practice, inheritance or lucky sales reward people most. We disadvantage hard workers.”
    Capital flight

    Could wealthy flee or hide assets? He says there are two flight types: moving abroad—which is exaggerated as many resist that—and moving capital via corporations. International tax avoidance is tighter, but tax cuts reduce capital flight fears. Countries used to have 70% top rates; now harder to avoid, maybe rates can rise.

    “Capital flight concerns are overblown. Many people won't emigrate just for taxes.”
    His background

    He left Deloitte for law firm Stibbe, and teaches at the University of Amsterdam. He notes fiscal firms both help clients avoid taxes and shape tougher laws. They are not a “trick box”—the system doesn't work like that.

    He supports Belgium’s capital gains tax.
    Simplification plea

    Tax reforms are politically sensitive. Belgium keeps adding complexity instead of simplifying. A standalone wealth tax would be a step, but only if paired by eliminating other taxes. Otherwise, people won’t embrace it.

    Book: De sterkste schouders, Atlas Contact, 352 pp, €24.99
    Bio: Born 1990 in Deventer; tax law at Univ. of Amsterdam; PhD in 2016 on inheritance tax; Deloitte 2009–2025; joining Stibbe; lecturer at UvA.

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    The delayed change to Section 174 — from immediate expensing of R&D to mandatory amortization, meaning that companies must spread the deduction out in smaller chunks over five or even 15-year periods — was that kind of provision. It didn’t start affecting the budget until 2022, but it helped the TCJA appear “deficit neutral” over the 10-year window used for legislative scoring.

    maybe the key paragraph

  • Taxes can go either way. It depends on how they were written.

    The tax code after the Great Depression allowed for massive expansion of public projects in the U.S. It was 63% for the top earners. During WW2 the top tax bracket was at 94%.

    When the boomers were all born the tax bracket was above 70% for the top earners. This high tax bracket is what fueled the creation of a large middle class, public infrastructure, schools, research, space exploration, and the massive military buildup and wars. It also acted as an effective anti-minopoly/oligarchy system because the tax system discouraged it.

    Then in the 80's Reagan slashed the taxes for the top earners down to 28%. its never gotten above 40% since then. Most high earning companies have so many exeptions today that the real tax rate is often 0%.

    Because of it the infrastructure built during the 50's-70's is degrading and falling apart. Public services are declining and the middle class is shrinking as people become more impoverished.

    Wow, your post sent me down quite a rabbit hole. I suspected 94% was rather high, this page puts it into clearer perspective:

    The “exceedingly high” part of this question most likely refers to the federal income tax’s “confiscatory” top rates coming out of World War II, which the Eisenhower Administration left in place into the 1960s. During the war, the top “marginal rate” was 94%, but 94% of what? Then as now, income tax rates moved up at distinct break points. In this made-up example, consider a 15% rate up to $25,000, 21% from $25,000 to $50,000, and 25% over $50,000. Those making $50,001 or more won’t pay a quarter of their total income, but rather 15% of the first $25,000, 21% of the next $25,000, and 25% of everything above $50K. That’s why the system is called progressive - the percentage rate progresses upward with income, but the higher percentage applies only to new (marginal) income above each break point. In 1944-45, “the most progressive tax years in U.S. history,” the 94% rate applied to any income above $200,000 ($2.4 million in 2009 dollars, given inflation).

    Very few individuals encountered this top rate, however. The actual proportion of earnings citizens paid as income taxes in 1945 was far lower: for the poorest 20% of Americans, 1.7%; for the next 20%, 6.2%; for the middle quintile, 8.9%, for the upper-middle 20%, 10%; and for the wealthiest quintile, 20.7%.

    source

    Still, your point stands, taxes can be an instrument for (more) equality. The article I referred to (see another reply of mine for the full article) also gives an example of how taxes can be fairer, and also gives an example of a time in Italy when they were.

  • I can't tell if it's "the true cause" of the massive tech layoffs because I know jackshit of US tax, but it does make more sense than every company realising at the same time that they over-hired or becoming instant believers of AI-driven productivity.

    The only part that doesn't make sense to me is why hide this from employees. Countless all-hamds with uncomfortable CTOs spitting badly rehearsed bs about why 20% of their team was suddenly let go or why project Y, top of last year's strategic priorities, was unceremoniously cancelled. Instead of "R&D is no longer deductible so it costs us much more now".

    I would not necessarily be happier about being laid off but this would at least be an explanation I feel I'd truly be able to accept

    This accounts for some portion of it, but the other part is the rise in interest rates. With borrowing money no longer being nearly free, companies tightened their budgets.

  • So Trump set a time bomb for who he thought would be 46 and then lost his re-election. Now he has to fix the mess he created - and if he does he will be hailed as a corporate hero for fixing the tax problem he created.

    If he doesn't fix it he will continue to plunge the future of America into chaos.

    Fucking futureless clown people.

    He has fixed more problems he created than any previous president. MATSA (make america the same again)

  • When Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the signature legislative achievement of President Donald Trump’s first term, it slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% — a massive revenue loss on paper for the federal government.

    To make the 2017 bill comply with Senate budget rules, lawmakers needed to offset the cost. So they added future tax hikes that wouldn’t kick in right away, wouldn’t provoke immediate backlash from businesses, and could, in theory, be quietly repealed later.

    The delayed change to Section 174 — from immediate expensing of R&D to mandatory amortization, meaning that companies must spread the deduction out in smaller chunks over five or even 15-year periods — was that kind of provision. It didn’t start affecting the budget until 2022, but it helped the TCJA appear “deficit neutral” over the 10-year window used for legislative scoring.

    The delay wasn’t a technical necessity. It was a political tactic. Such moves are common in tax legislation. Phase-ins and delayed provisions let lawmakers game how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) — Congress’ nonpartisan analyst of how bills impact budgets and deficits — scores legislation, pushing costs or revenue losses outside official forecasting windows.

    And so, on schedule in 2022, the change to Section 174 went into effect. Companies filed their 2022 tax returns under the new rules in early 2023. And suddenly, R&D wasn’t a full, immediate write-off anymore. The tax benefits of salaries for engineers, product and project managers, data scientists, and even some user experience and marketing staff — all of which had previously reduced taxable income in year one — now had to be spread out over five- or 15-year periods.

    Cut corp taxes and put the burden on citizens. Gotta love it.

  • Cut corp taxes and put the burden on citizens. Gotta love it.

    It's a classic

  • This accounts for some portion of it, but the other part is the rise in interest rates. With borrowing money no longer being nearly free, companies tightened their budgets.

    It's not that borrowing money is free, zero interest rates means the government pays zero interest for its loans, not companies. It does put downward pressure on interest rates companies pay but they're still going to have to pay a couple percent apy.

    The reason zero interest rates are good for tech is because it forces capital to seek more long-term and risky investments. If I have a lot of money and can get 6% apy from loaning it to the US government, the safest bet on the market, why would I invest in something else? If i can't get any money from loaning to the government (zero interest rates), and i cant get much from loaning it to other institutions because of that downward pressure, then maybe I'll buy some more risky tech stocks because it's possible for that company to grow more then the 1-2% id get from just lending my money. Most of techs financing is done through selling stock, not loans.

  • This post did not contain any content.

    They're still making money hand over fist. This is yet another shield for the fact that capitalism as we have implemented it is a dog shit system and we at the very least need real labor laws like a civilized fucking country

  • Wow, your post sent me down quite a rabbit hole. I suspected 94% was rather high, this page puts it into clearer perspective:

    The “exceedingly high” part of this question most likely refers to the federal income tax’s “confiscatory” top rates coming out of World War II, which the Eisenhower Administration left in place into the 1960s. During the war, the top “marginal rate” was 94%, but 94% of what? Then as now, income tax rates moved up at distinct break points. In this made-up example, consider a 15% rate up to $25,000, 21% from $25,000 to $50,000, and 25% over $50,000. Those making $50,001 or more won’t pay a quarter of their total income, but rather 15% of the first $25,000, 21% of the next $25,000, and 25% of everything above $50K. That’s why the system is called progressive - the percentage rate progresses upward with income, but the higher percentage applies only to new (marginal) income above each break point. In 1944-45, “the most progressive tax years in U.S. history,” the 94% rate applied to any income above $200,000 ($2.4 million in 2009 dollars, given inflation).

    Very few individuals encountered this top rate, however. The actual proportion of earnings citizens paid as income taxes in 1945 was far lower: for the poorest 20% of Americans, 1.7%; for the next 20%, 6.2%; for the middle quintile, 8.9%, for the upper-middle 20%, 10%; and for the wealthiest quintile, 20.7%.

    source

    Still, your point stands, taxes can be an instrument for (more) equality. The article I referred to (see another reply of mine for the full article) also gives an example of how taxes can be fairer, and also gives an example of a time in Italy when they were.

    In 2025 it would be anything above 3.6 million. It's a ton of money but here's a list of a few people that hit it.

    Now if they added in a progressive tax rate for corporate taxes as well.... Say anything over 500 million in net profit is taxed at a 90+% rate. That would solve all sorts of issues. Suddenly investors of all these mega corps would be pushing hard to divide up the companies into smaller entities.

    Wealth tax in the modern age could be an inheritance tax. Anything over the median life earnings of individuals could be taxed at 100%. So median earnings in my area is $65K * 45 years (20-65k) = $2.93 million.

  • France considers requiring Musk’s X to verify users’ age

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    TBH, age verification services exist. If it becomes law, integrating them shouldn't be more difficult than integrating a OIDC login. So everyone should be able to do it. Depending on these services, you might not even need to give a name, or, because they are separate entities, don't give your name to the platform using them. Other parts of regulation are more difficult. Like these "upload filters" that need to figure out if something shared via a service is violating any copyright before it is made available.
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    I wish everyone could read your comment right now. Spot on
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    Make them publishers or whatever is required to have it be a legal requirement, have them ban people who share false information. The law doesn't magically make open discussions not open. By design, social media is open. If discussion from the public is closed, then it's no longer social media. ban people who share false information Banning people doesn't stop falsehoods. It's a broken solution promoting a false assurance. Authorities are still fallible & risk banning over unpopular/debatable expressions that may turn out true. There was unpopular dissent over covid lockdown policies in the US despite some dramatic differences with EU policies. Pro-palestinian protests get cracked down. Authorities are vulnerable to biases & swayed. Moreover, when people can just share their falsehoods offline, attempting to ban them online is hard to justify. If print media, through its decline, is being held legally responsible Print media is a controlled medium that controls it writers & approves everything before printing. It has a prepared, coordinated message. They can & do print books full of falsehoods if they want. Social media is open communication where anyone in the entire public can freely post anything before it is revoked. They aren't claiming to spread the truth, merely to enable communication.
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    I think on iOS they added a thing where it would change based on the days you didn't use Duolingo. Honestly at this point I think it speaks more about the sorry state of their company more than anything.
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    Phew okay /s
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    [image: 8978adf5-b473-470c-9f21-62a31e2fbc77.gif]
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    TD Cowen (which is basically the US arm of one of the largest Canadian investment banks) did an extensive report on the state of AI investment. What they found was that despite all their big claims about the future of AI, Microsoft were quietly allowing letters of intent for billions of dollars worth of new compute capacity to expire. Basically, scrapping future plans for expansion, but in a way that's not showy and doesn't require any kind of big announcement. The equivalent of promising to be at the party and then just not showing up. Not long after this reporting came out, it got confirmed by Microsoft, and not long after it came out that Amazon was doing the same thing. Ed Zitron has a really good write up on it; https://www.wheresyoured.at/power-cut/ Amazon isn't the big surprise, they've always been the most cautious of the big players on the whole AI thing. Microsoft on the other hand are very much trying to play things both ways. They know AI is fucked, which is why they're scaling back, but they've also invested a lot of money into their OpenAI partnership so now they have to justify that expenditure which means convincing investors that consumers absolutely love their AI products and are desparate for more. As always, follow the money. Stuff like the three mile island thing is mostly just applying for permits and so on at this point. Relatively small investments. As soon as it comes to big money hitting the table, they're pulling back. That's how you know how they really feel.
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    The new Pebble watches look interesting. Relatively basic, but long battery life (they promise) and open-source operating system.