it exports an insane amount of solar panels instead of keeping them for themselves

How altruistic of them.

See? Moving the goalposts. Moving from cumulative, the real important metric, to per capita current emissions during a renewable transition, because otherwise the data doesn’t fit your preconceived, chauvinistic anti-china views.

I initially just wanted to point out that China does in fact consume a lot more coal, then you claimed. If you want to have the moral discussion, we can have that. The fundamental problem with your logic, is that you presume future emissions do not matter. The fact of the matter is that we will emit much more in the coming decades. Higher current per capita emissions make it much more likely that future emissions will be higher as well. At the 2023 rate of emissions, China emits as much as the EU cumulative did until 2023 in 25 years. Last year China increased its emissions by 0.8%. Current UN forecast put the population of China 633million and the EU at 347million. I hate to say it, but it is very realistic to presume that China ends up just as guilty by your metric as say the EU.

So let's start hating on the world capital of photovoltaics and nuclear because of a lemmitor's predictions of energy production over the coming 20 years in China?

That's not really how it works. Some random Chinese peasant (that's the vast majority of China's population) doesn't produce much CO2. You can add or remove millions of them without significantly impacting coal consumption or CO2 production.

Industry pollutes. Some types pollute more than others.

China has been increasing energy usage across the board at a much higher rate than the population has been growing. It's a nonsense plan because there's no reason to think that reducing the population would affect that trend.

While there's a clear trend of China using more coal there's just as clear a trend of coal making up a smaller and smaller share of China's power usage over time. Just about every analysis says they're solidly on track to completely phase out coal by 2025 and nobody predicts they'll need to shrink their population to do it.

I know nothing about Chinese economics and society but at least Im not pretending I do because this is what I imagine it sounds like lol

Compare GDP PPP per capita. China is very much on a lower place than the US or Germany. China is very developed compared to, say, Philippines, but still developing when compared to Japan or UK.

I'd rather not debate that particular topic. I'm not up on all the nuances. But I will say that while coal was maybe the right choice for generating abundant energy once upon a time, we know a lot more now about why it's a bad choice for other reasons, and, besides, we have more options now than we used to. So it's good to see the world's second largest economy at least trying to build solar capacity.

China also continues to increase coal generation by more than renewables.

I don't believe this:

China | Energy Trends | Ember

Explore the latest data on China’s energy transition. How clean is China's electricity? How much renewable electricity does China generate?

Ember (ember-energy.org)

In 2024, China approved 66.7GW of new coal-fired capacity, started construction on 94.5GW of coal power projects

Even if you add these 2 together and pretend they were finished the same year it's not even close to:

China’s renewable energy sector made remarkable progress in 2024, adding 356 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity

China’s Energy Production: Coal and Renewables Locked in Competition Amid Clean Energy Boom

China’s energy production strategy in 2024 has been marked by both an unprecedented surge in renewable energy and a persistent reliance on coal, according to a new analysis by two think tanks, the Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The Asia Live (theasialive.com)

They have missed every single renewable target and goal they’re set.

I don't believe this is true either unless you are referring to some other targets?

In 2020, China set a goal to install at least 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind power by 2030. By the end of 2024, China had already surpassed this target, reaching this milestone 6 years ahead of schedule. This was made possible by aggressive investments, government policies, and a surge in solar and wind installations.

China’s solar capacity grew by an incredible 45.2% in 2024, adding 277 GW. Wind capacity also saw a strong increase of 18%, with an additional 80 GW installed. Overall, total power generation capacity rose by 14.6% in 2024, driven mainly by renewables.

China’s Renewable Energy Boom: A Record-Breaking Shift or Still Chained to Coal?

China has surpassed its 2030 renewable energy goal six years early, leading global clean energy growth. But coal reliance remains a challenge.

Carbon Credits (carboncredits.com)

China is only %27 renewables while the EU is 47%.

Don't worry, just like everything else I'm sure that will flip in the future

Europe has plenty of money apparently to suddenly:

NATO leaders on Wednesday confirmed their commitment to more than double defence spending by 2035 banding words like "crucial", "momentous" and "quantum leap"

Defence up to 5% GDP, Ukraine, Russia: Key takeaways from NATO summit

The summit ended with a commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence - more than double the current target of 2%.

euronews (www.euronews.com)

Just why does it take an emergency to make some proper progress:

Global energy storage owner-operator BW ESS and Spanish energy storage developer Ibersun say a new joint venture is intended to build eight four-hour battery projects across the country, with a combined capacity of 2.2 GW, 8.8 GWh.

“No time to waste:” Huge big battery plans unveiled for Spain as accusations traded over blackout

Two battery storage companies unveil plans for eight big projects in Spain, as the government, regulator and power companies trade accusations over cause of blackout.

RenewEconomy (reneweconomy.com.au)

Where will the batteries be made I wonder?

On top of this energy prices in the EU are ridiculous and for some reason they still can't get off the gas, which leads to an unreal point of France giving more money to Russia for gas than in aid to Ukraine, so they have high energy prices and they're funding Russia's invasion of Ukraine and their companies and manufacturing are leaving them... to go to China...

Eurozone business activity almost flat again in June - Aussie Zone

> “The eurozone economy is struggling to gain momentum. For six months now, growth has been minimal, with activity in the service sector stagnating and manufacturing output rising only moderately,” Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. >“In Germany, there are signs of a cautious improvement in the situation, but France continues to drag its feet”. >The expansion in the 20-country currency area was centred on the manufacturing sector, where production increased for the fourth successive month, according to the survey.

(aussie.zone)

But I appreciate your scepticism (I gave your post an upvote because China does sometimes get a little bit too much credit), they are the worlds top producer of CO2 by FAR but I do want to address

Greenwashing

This is something I've wanted for a while:

It requires EU importers to pay a levy corresponding to the embedded carbon emissions in 303 emission-intensive products

Just a moment...

(www.oecd.org)

I've long disliked that places like the EU and the rest of the west can export their dirty manufacturing over to China where companies take advantage of lax or no environmental regulations, it's a false economy and makes the west look a whole lot greener and cleaner than it would if we were manufacturing what we used back at home

‘China has Apple by the balls’: How the rising superpower captured the tech giant

‘China has Apple by the balls’: How the rising superpower captured the tech giant

Apple Inc reaped staggering profits by outsourcing its manufacturing – but its “epic” technology transfer has consequences, says one long-time observer.

The Sydney Morning Herald (www.smh.com.au)

edit: boy I sure do love to procrastinate and talk about energy and co2 instead of studying

China is 17% of the world and almost 40% of the emissions.

Deceiving metrics. What percentage of world PPP GDP is China? China doesn't pollute due to its population, it pollutes because it's the industrial hub of the world. How comfortable of you to sit in your office and import Chinese products disregarding the effect of that in the pollution metrics of your country and China.

China is only %27 renewables while the EU is 47%

And how long did China take to develop? What are the cumulative CO2 emissions of China vs those of the US or Europe? Furthermore: where are the solar panels that Europe uses manufactured? Europe may have a blossoming wind industry, but photovoltaics are almost entirely Chinese.

What a chauvinistic and anti-Chinese point of view. BTW, you got completely proven wrong on China building more coal than renewables, you're just spitting disinformation.

edit: boy I sure do love to procrastinate and talk about energy and co2 instead of studying

I feel the same way, but I had to actually focus on real life over the weekend instead of combing through the energy reports. I will start by saying that its very likely that 2024 stats are significantly more in favor of strong renewable growth but I also couldnt find a csv of data on ember-energy so i couldnt look at the actual numbers. The major energy reports I normally go by dont seem to have included 2024 data yet. Its likely that even in 2024 non renewables still increased more than renewables even though china claims that renewables were 80% of the growth I will explain below why this has previously been the case.

China also continues to increase coal generation by more than renewables.

China loves this stat and its a good stat but its a bit misleading, these show renewable energy as a % of total power which is relative instead of absolute. Why this is important is because it allows china to brag about increasing renewables while still massively increasing non renewables.

Year 2022: Renewable = 8114 TWh | Non-renewable = 36401 TWh | % renewables = 18.2% From Energy Institute's world review

Year 2023: Renewable = 8719 TWh | Non-renewable = 38708 TWh | % renewables = 18.3%

Renewable energy increase was 605 TWh and Non-renewable was 2307 TWh

There is another stat that these reports normally parade around. Its % increase of a specific energy type. (these stats are made up cause i could be fucked finding an example article of a claim) They will say something like solar went from 600gw to 1000 thats a 66% increase this year and coal only increased 40% except coal is 3600gw to 6400.

Maybe I'm wrong and if so i'd love for someone smarter than me to correct me.

They have missed every single renewable target and goal they’re set.

China does this thing where they go to climate meetings and agree on world goals like 13% energy intensity reduction and carbon intensity reduction. They then go back home and broadcast random goals like adding x amount of solar or carbon peak by x year. These are no climate targets, these are personal targets from the CCP that even if achieved (the carbon peak 1000% wont be) are no where close to what is required to meet their climate goals.

Just a moment...

(www.instituteforenergyresearch.org)

Europe has plenty of money apparently to suddenly double defense spending OVER 10 YEARS

I'm not sure how european defense spending is relevant considering china's defense spending has also more than doubled in the last few years and is nearing the US

Where will the batteries be made I wonder?

Prehaps they would be made in a country with environmental and labour laws if governments legislated properly to prevent companies outsourcing manufacturing. However this doesnt absolve china. China isnt being forced at Gunpoint to produce these goods with low labour regulation and low environmental regulation.

energy prices in the EU are ridiculous

Can someone actually point out to me where this comes from? Even when I look up the peak spike of germany Energy prices it doesnt seem that bad. At the end of the day energy is a small % of EU household spending and ill think that until i see otherwise.

It requires EU importers to pay a levy corresponding to the embedded carbon emissions in 303 emission-intensive products

This would be great, it would have been greater 10 years ago. But the best time to act was yesterday and the 2nd best time is today so i'd be happy to see something like this implemented although I dont know how effective it would be since manufacturing competitiveness is no where close anymore.