Same thing happened with companies that used outsourcing expecting it to be a magic bullet.

Fewer workers are required when their productivity is enhanced.

Does anyone have numbers on that? Microsoft just announced they're laying off around 10k.

Vibe coding is 5% asking for code and 95% cleaning up the code, turns out replacing people with AI is exactly the same.

Doesn't that have more to do with Gamepass eating game studios' lunch though? And a lot less with AI? Just regular ol' dumbass management decisions.

I wonder if there's a market here. I feel like a company that cleans up AI bullshit would make bank lol

Microsoft did the June layoffs we knew were coming since January and pinned it on "AI cost savings" so that doing so would raise their stock price instead of lower it.

I don’t know if it even helps with productivity that much. A lot of bosses think developers’ entire job is just churning out code when it’s actually like 50% coding and 50% listening to stakeholders, planning, collaborating with designers, etc. I mean, it’s fine for a quick Python script or whatever but that might save an experienced developer 20 minutes max.

And if you “write” me an email using Chat GPT and I just read a summary, what is the fucking point? All the nuance is lost. Specialized A.I. is great! I’m all for it combing through giant astronomy data sets or protein folding and stuff like that. But I don’t know that I’ve seen generative A.I. without a specific focus increase productivity very much.

All the leadership who made this mistake should be fired. They are clearly incompetent

But i guess it's always labor that pays the price

I was a frontend developer and UI/UX designer that specialized in JavaScript and Typescript with emphasis on React. I'm learning Python for Flask. I'm skipping meals so I can afford Udemy courses then AWS certifications. I don't enjoy any of this and I'm falling apart.

So conversely, we'll need more workers now that generative AI is hindering productivity.

AI: Confidently Incorrect

Kinda like Wal-Mart trying to “save money” with self check out and now they are walking it back.

Or more generalized: management going all-in with their decisions, forgetting there is a sweet spot for everything, and then backtracking losing employee time and company money. Sometimes these cause huge backlash, like Wells Fargo pushy sales practices, or great loses, like Meta with Metaverse

As a senior developer, my most productive days are genuinely when I remove a lot of code. This might seem like negative productivity to a naive beancounter, but in fact this is my peak contribution to the software and the organization. Simplifying, optimizing, identifying what code is no longer needed, removing technical debt, improving maintainability, this is what requires most of my experience and skill and contextual knowledge to do safely and correctly. AI has no ability to do this in any meaningful way, and code bases filled with mostly AI generated code are bound to become an unmaintainable nightmare (which I will eventually be paid handsomely to fix, I suspect)

Hiring people at lower wages that is.

It's technically closer to Schrodinger's truth. It goes both ways depending on "when" you look at it. Publicly traded companies are more or less expected to adopt AI as it is the next "cheap" labor... so long as it is the cheapest of any option. See the very related: slave labor and it's variants, child labor, and "outsourcing" to "less developed" countries.

The problem is they need to dance between this experimental technology and ... having a publicly "functional" company. The line demands you cut costs but also increase service. So basically overcorrection hell. Mass hirings into mass firings. Every quarter / two quarters depending on the company... until one of two things becomes true: ai works or ai no longer is the cheapest solution. I imagine that will rubberband for quite some time. (saas shit like oracle etc)

In short - I'd not expect this to be more than a brief reprieve from a rapidly drying well. Take advantage of it for now - but I'd recommend not expecting it to remain.

At least in my area they've decided to walk back the walk back.

They went from "Self checkouts are now only for ten items or less" to "Self checkouts are permanently closed" and now they've gone to "Self checkouts can be used for any number of items and also we added four more".

The power to fire lies within the leadership themselves though...
Oh, you mean an actual fire?! I like your way of thinking.

That's what I suspect. ChatGPT is never wrong, and even if it doesn't know, it knows and still answers something. I guess its no different for source code: always add, never delete.