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Apple just proved AI "reasoning" models like Claude, DeepSeek-R1, and o3-mini don't actually reason at all. They just memorize patterns really well.

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  • By that metric, you can argue Kasparov isn’t thinking during chess

    Kasparov's thinking fits pretty much all biological definitions of thinking. Which is the entire point.

    Is thinking necessarily biologic?

  • LLMs deal with tokens. Essentially, predicting a series of bytes.

    Humans do much, much, much, much, much, much, much more than that.

    No. They don't. We just call them proteins.

  • LOOK MAA I AM ON FRONT PAGE

    Wow it's almost like the computer scientists were saying this from the start but were shouted over by marketing teams.

  • OK, and? A car doesn't run like a horse either, yet they are still very useful.

    I'm fine with the distinction between human reasoning and LLM "reasoning".

    The guy selling the car doesn't tell you it runs like a horse, the guy selling you AI is telling you it has reasoning skills. AI absolutely has utility, the guys making it are saying it's utility is nearly limitless because Tesla has demonstrated there's no actual penalty for lying to investors.

  • Lots of us who has done some time in search and relevancy early on knew ML was always largely breathless overhyped marketing. It was endless buzzwords and misframing from the start, but it raised our salaries. Anything that exec doesnt understand is profitable and worth doing.

    Ragebait?

    I'm in robotics and find plenty of use for ML methods. Think of image classifiers, how do you want to approach that without oversimplified problem settings?
    Or even in control or coordination problems, which can sometimes become NP-hard. Even though not optimal, ML methods are quite solid in learning patterns of highly dimensional NP hard problem settings, often outperforming hand-crafted conventional suboptimal solvers in computation effort vs solution quality analysis, especially outperforming (asymptotically) optimal solvers time-wise, even though not with optimal solutions (but "good enough" nevertheless). (Ok to be fair suboptimal solvers do that as well, but since ML methods can outperform these, I see it as an attractive middle-ground.)

  • Wow it's almost like the computer scientists were saying this from the start but were shouted over by marketing teams.

    This! Capitalism is going to be the end of us all. OpenAI has gotten away with IP Theft, disinformation regarding AI and maybe even murder of their whistle blower.

  • What confuses me is that we seemingly keep pushing away what counts as reasoning. Not too long ago, some smart alghoritms or a bunch of instructions for software (if/then) was officially, by definition, software/computer reasoning. Logically, CPUs do it all the time. Suddenly, when AI is doing that with pattern recognition, memory and even more advanced alghoritms, it's no longer reasoning? I feel like at this point a more relevant question is "What exactly is reasoning?". Before you answer, understand that most humans seemingly live by pattern recognition, not reasoning.

    If you want to boil down human reasoning to pattern recognition, the sheer amount of stimuli and associations built off of that input absolutely dwarfs anything an LLM will ever be able to handle. It's like comparing PhD reasoning to a dog's reasoning.

    While a dog can learn some interesting tricks and the smartest dogs can solve simple novel problems, there are hard limits. They simply lack a strong metacognition and the ability to make simple logical inferences (eg: why they fail at the shell game).

    Now we make that chasm even larger by cutting the stimuli to a fixed token limit. An LLM can do some clever tricks within that limit, but it's designed to do exactly those tricks and nothing more. To get anything resembling human ability you would have to design something to match human complexity, and we don't have the tech to make a synthetic human.

  • Not "This particular model". Frontier LRMs s OpenAI’s o1/o3,DeepSeek-R, Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking, and Gemini Thinking.

    The paper shows that Large Reasoning Models as defined today cannot interpret instructions. Their architecture does not allow it.

    those particular models. It does not prove the architecture doesn't allow it at all. It's still possible that this is solvable with a different training technique, and none of those are using the right one. that's what they need to prove wrong.

    this proves the issue is widespread, not fundamental.

  • No. They don't. We just call them proteins.

    You are either vastly overestimating the Language part of an LLM or simplifying human physiology back to the Greek's Four Humours theory.

  • No. They don't. We just call them proteins.

    "They".

    What are you?

  • That’s absolutely what it is. It’s a pattern on here. Any acknowledgment of humans being animals or less than superior gets hit with pushback.

    I didn't say we aren't animals or that we don't follow physics rules.

    But what you're saying is the equivalent of "everything that goes up will eventually go down - that's how physics works and you don't see that, you're in denial!!!11!!!1"

  • Proving it matters. Science is constantly proving any other thing that people believe is obvious because people have an uncanning ability to believe things that are false. Some people will believe things long after science has proven them false.

    I mean… “proving” is also just marketing speak. There is no clear definition of reasoning, so there’s also no way to prove or disprove that something/someone reasons.

  • While a fair idea there are two issues with that even still - Hallucinations and the cost of running the models.

    Unfortunately, it take significant compute resources to perform even simple responses, and these responses can be totally made up, but still made to look completely real. It's gotten much better sure, but blindly trusting these things (Which many people do) can have serious consequences.

    Hallucinations and the cost of running the models.

    So, inaccurate information in books is nothing new. Agreed that the rate of hallucinations needs to decline, a lot, but there has always been a need for a veracity filter - just because it comes from "a book" or "the TV" has never been an indication of absolute truth, even though many people stop there and assume it is. In other words: blind trust is not a new problem.

    The cost of running the models is an interesting one - how does it compare with publication on paper to ship globally to store in environmentally controlled libraries which require individuals to physically travel to/from the libraries to access the information? What's the price of the resulting increased ignorance of the general population due to the high cost of information access?

    What good is a bunch of knowledge stuck behind a search engine when people don't know how to access it, or access it efficiently?

    Granted, search engines already take us 95% (IMO) of the way from paper libraries to what AI is almost succeeding in being today, but ease of access of information has tremendous value - and developing ways to easily access the information available on the internet is a very valuable endeavor.

    Personally, I feel more emphasis should be put on establishing the veracity of the information before we go making all the garbage easier to find.

    I also worry that "easy access" to automated interpretation services is going to lead to a bunch of information encoded in languages that most people don't know because they're dependent on machines to do the translation for them. As an example: shiny new computer language comes out but software developer is too lazy to learn it, developer uses AI to write code in the new language instead...

  • Sure. We weren't discussing if AI creates value or not. If you ask a different question then you get a different answer.

    Well - if you want to devolve into argument, you can argue all day long about "what is reasoning?"

  • When are people going to realize, in its current state , an LLM is not intelligent. It doesn’t reason. It does not have intuition. It’s a word predictor.

    I agree with you. In its current state, LLM is not sentient, and thus not "Intelligence".

  • "lacks internal computation" is not part of the definition of markov chains. Only that the output depends only on the current state (the whole context, not just the last token) and no previous history, just like llms do. They do not consider tokens that slid out of the current context, because they are not part of the state anymore.

    And it wouldn't be a cache unless you decide to start invalidating entries, which you could just, not do.. it would be a table with token-alphabet-size^context length size, with each entry being a vector of size token_alphabet_size. Because that would be too big to realistically store, we do not precompute the whole thing, and just approximate what each table entry should be using a neural network.

    The pi example was just to show that how you implement a function (any function) does not matter, as long as the inputs and outputs are the same. Or to put it another way if you give me an index, then you wouldn't know whether I got the result by doing some computations or using a precomputed table.

    Likewise, if you give me a sequence of tokens and I give you a probability distribution, you can't tell whether I used A NN or just consulted a precomputed table. The point is that given the same input, the table will always give the same result, and crucially, so will an llm. A table is just one type of implementation for an arbitrary function.

    There is also no requirement for the state transiiltion function (a table is a special type of function) to be understandable by humans. Just because it's big enough to be beyond human comprehension, doesn't change its nature.

    You're correct that the formal definition of a Markov process does not exclude internal computation, and that it only requires the next state to depend solely on the current state. But what defines a classical Markov chain in practice is not just the formal dependency structure but how the transition function is structured and used. A traditional Markov chain has a discrete and enumerable state space with explicit, often simple transition probabilities between those states. LLMs do not operate this way.

    The claim that an LLM is "just" a large compressed Markov chain assumes that its function is equivalent to a giant mapping of input sequences to output distributions. But this interpretation fails to account for the fundamental difference in how those distributions are generated. An LLM is not indexing a symbolic structure. It is computing results using recursive transformations across learned embeddings, where those embeddings reflect complex relationships between tokens, concepts, and tasks. That is not reducible to discrete symbolic transitions without losing the model’s generalization capabilities. You could record outputs for every sequence, but the moment you present a sequence that wasn't explicitly in that set, the Markov table breaks. The LLM does not.

    Yes, you can say a table is just one implementation of a function, and from a purely mathematical perspective, any function can be implemented as a table given enough space. But the LLM’s function is general-purpose. It extrapolates. A precomputed table cannot do this unless those extrapolations are already baked in, in which case you are no longer talking about a classical Markov system. You are describing a model that encodes relationships far beyond discrete transitions.

    The pi analogy applies to deterministic functions with fixed outputs, not to learned probabilistic functions that approximate conditional distributions over language. If you give an LLM a new input, it will return a meaningful distribution even if it has never seen anything like it. That behavior depends on internal structure, not retrieval. Just because a function is deterministic at temperature 0 does not mean it is a transition table. The fact that the same input yields the same output is true for any deterministic function. That does not collapse the distinction between generalization and enumeration.

    So while yes, you can implement any deterministic function as a lookup table, the nature of LLMs lies in how they model relationships and extrapolate from partial information. That ability is not captured by any classical Markov model, no matter how large.

  • When are people going to realize, in its current state , an LLM is not intelligent. It doesn’t reason. It does not have intuition. It’s a word predictor.

    And that's pretty damn useful, but obnoxious to have expectations wildly set incorrectly.

  • those particular models. It does not prove the architecture doesn't allow it at all. It's still possible that this is solvable with a different training technique, and none of those are using the right one. that's what they need to prove wrong.

    this proves the issue is widespread, not fundamental.

    Is "model" not defined as architecture+weights? Those models certainly don't share the same architecture. I might just be confused about your point though

  • When are people going to realize, in its current state , an LLM is not intelligent. It doesn’t reason. It does not have intuition. It’s a word predictor.

    People think they want AI, but they don’t even know what AI is on a conceptual level.

  • Funny how triggering it is for some people when anyone acknowledges humans are just evolved primates doing the same pattern matching.

    We actually have sentience, though, and are capable of creating new things and having realizations. AI isn’t real and LLMs and dispersion models are simply reiterating algorithmic patterns, no LLM or dispersion model can create anything original or expressive.

    Also, we aren’t “evolved primates.” We are just primates, the thing is, primates are the most socially and cognitively evolved species on the planet, so that’s not a denigrating sentiment unless your a pompous condescending little shit.

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    That is still beyond extremely optimistic
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    eyekaytee@aussie.zoneE
    They will say something like solar went from 600gw to 1000 thats a 66% increase this year and coal only increased 40% except coal is 3600gw to 6400. Hrmmmm, maybe these numbers are outdated? Based on this coal and gas are down: In Q1 2025, solar generation rose 48% compared to the same period in 2024. Solar power reached 254 TWh, making up 10% of total electricity. This was the largest increase among all clean energy sources. Coal-fired electricity dropped by 4%, falling to 1,421 TWh. Gas-fired power also went down by 4%, reaching 67 TWh https://carboncredits.com/china-sets-clean-energy-record-in-early-2025-with-951-tw/ are no where close to what is required to meet their climate goals Which ones in particular are you talking about? Trump signs executive order directing US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — again https://apnews.com/article/trump-paris-agreement-climate-change-788907bb89fe307a964be757313cdfb0 China vowed on Tuesday to continue participating in two cornerstone multinational arrangements -- the World Health Organization and Paris climate accord -- after newly sworn-in US President Donald Trump ordered withdrawals from them. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250121-china-says-committed-to-who-paris-climate-deal-after-us-pulls-out What's that saying? You hate it when the person you hate is doing good? I can't remember what it is I can't fault them for what they're doing at the moment, even if they are run by an evil dictatorship and do pollute the most I’m not sure how european defense spending is relevant It suggests there is money available in the bank to fund solar/wind/battery, but instead they are preparing for? something? what? who knows. France can make a fighter jet at home but not solar panels apparently. Prehaps they would be made in a country with environmental and labour laws if governments legislated properly to prevent companies outsourcing manufacturing. However this doesnt absolve china. China isnt being forced at Gunpoint to produce these goods with low labour regulation and low environmental regulation. You're right, it doesn't absolve china, and I avoid purchasing things from them wherever possible, my solar panels and EV were made in South Korea, my home battery was made in Germany, there are only a few things in my house made in China, most of them I got second hand but unfortunately there is no escaping the giant of manufacturing. With that said it's one thing for me to sit here and tut tut at China, but I realise I am not most people, the most clearest example is the extreme anti-ai, anti-billionaire bias on this platform, in real life most people don't give a fuck, they love Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple etc, they can't go a day without them. So I consider myself a realist, if you want people to buy your stuff then you will need to make the conditions possible for them to WANT to buy your stuff, not out of some moral lecture and Europe isn't doing that, if we look at energy prices: Can someone actually point out to me where this comes from? ... At the end of the day energy is a small % of EU household spending I was looking at corporate/business energy use: Major European companies are already moving to cut costs and retain their competitive edge. For example, Thyssenkrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, said on Monday it would slash 11,000 jobs in its steel division by 2030, in a major corporate reshuffle. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/High-Energy-Costs-Continue-to-Plague-European-Industry.html Prices have since fallen but are still high compared to other countries. A poll by Germany's DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce of around 3,300 companies showed that 37% were considering cutting production or moving abroad, up from 31% last year and 16% in 2022. For energy-intensive industrial firms some 45% of companies were mulling slashing output or relocation, the survey showed. "The trust of the German economy in energy policy is severely damaged," Achim Dercks, DIHK deputy chief executive said, adding that the government had not succeeded in providing companies with a perspective for reliable and affordable energy supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/more-german-companies-mull-relocation-due-high-energy-prices-survey-2024-08-01/ I've seen nothing to suggest energy prices in the EU are SO cheap that it's worth moving manufacturing TO Europe, and this is what annoys me the most. I've pointed this out before but they have an excellent report on the issues: https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The+future+of+European+competitiveness+_+A+competitiveness+strategy+for+Europe.pdf Then they put out this Competitive Compass: https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-competitiveness/competitiveness-compass_en But tbh every week in the EU it seems like they are chasing after some other goal. This would be great, it would have been greater 10 years ago. Agreed
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    So you pay taxes to Putin. Good to know who actually helps funding the regime. I suggest you go someplace else. I won't take this from a jerk from likely one of the countries buying fossil fuels from said regime, that have also supported it after a few falsified elections starting in 1996, which is also the year I was born. And of course "paying taxes to Putin" can't be even compared to what TG is doing, so just shut up and go do something you know how to do, like I dunno what.