Then why do I feel like it's programming abilites are getting worse? I've stopped paying for it now because it causes more frustration than anything else. Works for simple "how can I simplyfi this code" queries when my head hurts, but that's about it.

So only 10 years until it isn't a ressource hog anymore...

I guess the value is that at some point you'll probably hear the core claim - "AI is improving exponentially" - regurgitated by someone making a bad argument, and knowing the original source and context can be very helpful to countering that disinformation.

My son has doubled in size every month for the last few months. At this rate he'll be fifty foot tall by the time he's seven years old.

Yeah, it's a stupid claim to make on the face of it. It also ignores practical realities. The first is those is training data, and the second is context windows. The idea that AI will successfully write a novel or code a large scale piece of software like a video game would require them to be able to hold that entire thing in their context window at once. Context windows are strongly tied to hardware usage, so scaling them to the point where they're big enough for an entire novel may not ever be feasible (at least from a cost/benefit perspective).

I think there's also the issue of how you define "success" for the purpose of a study like this. The article claims that AI may one day write a novel, but how do you define "successfully" writing a novel? Is the goal here that one day we'll have a machine that can produce algorithmically mediocre works of art? What's the value in that?

That said, exponentials don’t exist in the real world, we’re just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.

Yes, but the tricky thing is we have no idea when the seemingly exponential growth will flip over into the plateuing phase. We could be there already or it could be another 30 years.

For comparison Moores law is almost certainly a sigmoid too, but weve been seeing exponential growth for 50 years now.

I saw something once that explained how you can have an ai trained on a set of soccer games and have it generate soccer games as a use for it.

The idea is that the model has compressed all the soccer games into a smaller data size form than the total of having let's say 100+ games on video or whatever.

That's the real utility I see in generative ai that I know can keep going basically as long as we want to.

Only if people give up on the whole concept by then. Each new generation of AI model takes more energy than the last.

That's what you get when the "research" for the article is AI generated.

This. It's the old "to the moon" mentality.

If my 2yo continues to grow at the current rate, we'll have to buy new doors soon becouse at age 10 the kid will be the tallest person on Earth.

Moore's law hasn't been exponential for ~15 years now.

and I can easily check it was completed correctly

Can you always though?

I very much like those huge generalizations in AI articles that makes you small and stupid. Those generalizations proves nothing but they sound like something big is coming. It's parody. How long we see them before people wake up ? Just wait 2 more years and AI will be better bro. You're not using AI properly, you need to learn how to use AI bro. You need to use different model for this task bro. Just pay for corporate products bro. Amount of junk of top of this pile of shit is amusing.

They need to invent an inquiring-gpt or Q-GPT. Otherwise they'll need humans to do the digging.

Classic pseudo-science for the modern grifter. Vague definitions, sloppy measurements, extremely biased, wild unsupported predictions, etc.

It's outperforming "messier" problems with a much lower success rate.

when will they be able to tell me how many 'r's are in 'strawberry' in under 1s?

Because so much money has been thrown at it, for startups, for power generation, for investors, that this is little more than marketing for retail investors to buy into.

and assuming that improvement doesn't plateau, ever,

time for them to set sail to the wild seas again!

If you are just talking transitor density I believe it still is, but even if not, my point was that it had exponential growth spanning over many decades.