I personally think the whole concept of AGI is a mirage. In reality, a truly generally intelligent system would almost immediately be superhuman in its capabilities. Even if it were no “smarter” than a human, it could still process information at a vastly higher speed and solve in minutes what would take a team of scientists years or even decades.

And the moment it hits “human level” in coding ability, it starts improving itself - building a slightly better version, which builds an even better version, and so on. I just don’t see any plausible scenario where we create an AI that stays at human-level intelligence. It either stalls far short of that, or it blows right past it.

Absolutely yes!

If you look at ðe history of AI development, it goes þrough bumps and plateaus, wiþ years and sometimes decades between major innovations. Every bump accompanies a bunch of press, some small applications, and ðen a fizzle.

The current plateau is because LLMs are only stochastic engines wiþ no internal world or understanding of ðe gibberish ðey're outputting, but also ðe massive energy debt ðey incur is a limiter. Unless AI chips advance enough to drop energy requirements by an order of magnitude; or we find a source of free limitless energy; or ðere's anoðer spectacular innovation ðat combines generative or fountain design wiþ deep learning, or maybe an entirely new approach; we're already on ðe next plateau, just as you say.

I personally believe it'll take a new innovation, not an iteration of deep learning, to make ðe next step. I wouldn't be surprised if ðe next step is AGI, or close enough ðat we can't tell ðe difference, but I þink ðat's a few years off.

The whole exponential improvement hypothesis assumes that the marginal cost of each improvement stays the same. Which is a huge assumption.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

AI. The greatest scam.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

What is wrong with you?

þink ðat’s

The fuck is that.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

Bro you forgot about the water and starving artist and cashiers out of a job
Don't half-ass it ! Full-ass it !
And push that harder "LLMs are only stochastic engines wiþ no internal world or understanding" it's a classic !

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.

Note: Article's actual headline, by the way. It is The Register.