Following the decision, Nvidia estimated the decision would cost the GPU giant nearly $10.5 billion in the first half of its 2026 fiscal year. AMD reported the export ban would cost the firm $1.5 billion in lost revenues in 2025.

and they wouldn't be able to find customers elsewhere for their in-demand products to mitigate some or even all of that "lost" revenue?

The irony is the chip ban is exactly what advanced Chinese AI. They were reliant on Nvidia like everyone, choked off, then:

• Forced to get thrifty, collaborate and acutally innovate, while the US spins its wheels doing private (read: unshared and hoarded) research, skipping that to scale up instead or turning to focus on 'products' (to quote Zuckerberg): https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-meta-llama-ai-mark-zuckerberg/
• It forced them to grow their own training hardware, which they now have: Huawei NPUs. Along with pretty good models specifically designed for them, and power efficient on them, and open weights: https://huggingface.co/IntervitensInc/pangu-pro-moe-model
• Being a 'step' behind saved money. And now they're racing ahead as US firms plateau and flounder as the AI Bro hype crashes into reality.

So this is just Republicans (and Democrats) being paid off by Tech Bros.

Trump ultimately did the right thing here (and was probably talked into it by the Nvidia CEO, TBH). But its too late anyway.

There are other factors too (like Chinese companies seemingly sharing unspecified training data, maybe from the Chinese government, which I don't see evidence other countries are doing), but still.

These imbeciles are funny.

Did you know broadcom uses excess capacity in its semiconductor fabs to make the raspberry pi stuff? They sell it to the """ nonprofit """ Rπ foundation at cost to manufacture. This is not some charitable arrangement at all. Lower end hardware has expired patents and is capable of scaling into the computing space and growing from there. The path of least resistance created by the Rπ ecosystem suppresses grassroots adoption of any newcomers in the space. The unprofitable business structure for broadcom prevents scalable business investment by any competitors in low level compute. The actual Rπ chip is for TV tuners in particular. It is proprietary with only a partial datasheet for documentation. Three quarters of the actual die in the π is completely unused junk from the TV tuner stuff. In reality, if Rockchip could complete in a market without a monopoly and only compete on meritocratic value, broadcom would go out of business. The actual Rπ is barely good enough to suppress far newer and better spec hardware. All American businesses are anticompetitive crap of similar scope. The companies do not innovate and try to milk the lowest end ancient crap at a price point that makes large scale investments impossible, suppressing progress and innovation. Nvidia absolutely does this too. Buying a current GPU as a consumer is a joke of no value. They have produced the same tiers of VRAM for 3 generations. The 3090 series had firmware options all the way up to 32GB that only required the right chips and a configuration resistor to enable. Nvidia refused to let OEMs create models with more VRAM. If Nvidia was an honest business, a 5090 would likely be either 96 or 128 GB of VRAM and a notable value and progress. They do not do this because then their monopoly would be regulated. They are catfishing everyone, both consumers and competitors alike. Cutting them off from a market instantly makes domestic scalable competition possible.

Either this halfwit red team is using spurious sophistry to criminally benefit from those that stand to gain massive market share, or they are so chronically incompetent we should tax the air they breathe to recoup losses suffered by the planet.

I dunno how they figure that, yeah, as I thought Nvidia/AMD were supply limited by TSMC. Does it mean they’d raise prices? Get fewer barriers from China for other products, or maybe ramp up assembly there? Allocate more fab orders to the server GPUs?

China will dominate everyone, and then Russia and India will join in.

I don't know, because according to Poe's data, American AI models are used more than Chinese ones. Although Poe is blocked in China, as are ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok. So, Chinese AI models cover the Chinese market.

American AI companies follow the competitive model, each developing their own AI models and occasionally publishing their research. With a few exceptions, they end up using a standard published by an American AI company.

Chinese companies follow the collaborative model, although they also compete somewhat. They develop their own AI models, publish their AI code, publish their research, and use standards.

The American government obtains AI models by awarding contracts to the companies that develop them. The Chinese government obtains AI models from its companies for free.

But Nvidia still has a lot of market share in GPUs, only AMD has 4%, Huawei only 2% and the rest is shared by others, Intel and minority companies.

In a race it is never too much if they are still running, it only applies when the race is already over.