Big tech has spent $155 billion on AI this year. It’s about to spend hundreds of billions more
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Anyone remember the dot-com bubble?
This makes the dot-com bubble look like a kiddie pool - at least those companies were trying to build actual products, while today's AI spending is burning through more money than the GDP of most countries just to have the biggest model with no clear path to profitability beyond "trust us bro".
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This is not that. They're all hoping to be the next Google or FaceBook. They know damned well most are going to lose. The gamble is that they won't be the one holding the bag when the bubble pops.
This is as high stakes as tech gets today.
Some of them are already Google or Facebook tbh. They could run many safer gambles for the same money. But I suspect investors demand AI right now.
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Anyone remember the dot-com bubble?
Every time you think of something and don't understand why it happens, it does good to ask about every neighboring assumption "what if not".
Why am I saying this?
Because AGI created this way is impractical and economically useless, that's fundamental. One can even say "elementary".
What if they are not trying to create AGI?
What if they are not trying to make money?
What if they want a bubble burst, not fear it, and want it to be as big as the sky, so that Western economies would crumble and their surveillance systems were the only thing standing, together with other functioning machines?
From the answers depends the optimal strategy for other parties, suppose, maybe turning their Big Beautiful Bubble Burst into just another dot-com bubble, via adoption of this technology for actually useful applications, is something we should strive towards.
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All for it to fail and implode on its own weight.
I definitely hope so, like it will with dotcom bubble. If the bubble burst delays the rise of killer robots, then I am all for another economic recession!
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It's going to be a bigger bubble than the dot com one.
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Already starting to, at least for smaller companies and startups that were trying to use it to build things end to end.
If you use it to provide you with content, sure, easy no worries. building a website? sure no problem as long as it doesn't require any sort of logins or security stuff. an application? well now you're going to have some problems.
Most AI can't scale something. and most are absolutely horrible at any sort of security. and all of them can't UX themselves out a wet paper bag.
Now if you utilize them as a tool, a sort of rubber duck, sure they're great. The issue is, and I'm seeing this first hand because of my job, is that many smaller companies and start ups aren't doing that. They're assigning someone, a "vibe coder", to feed the thing prompts to build stuff from end to end. Naturally the end product is an insanely resource heavy, convoluted code, exploitable mess that can't scale. It creates a massive amount of tech debt. All to save a couple grand instead of hiring actual devs. So now when I get a call or email from one of my contacts that "so and so's company/start up needs someone to clean up their app because it's very broken due to a vibe coder" I charge them an arm and a leg.
So you're right, it is going to fail and implode on it's own weight but I'm going to damn well be sure to take advantage of these people before it completely does and I encourage other freelance/consultant developers to do the same.
The hype for AI is ridiculous:
HP acquiring parts of AI Pin startup Humane for $116 million
HP is acquiring Humane’s AI tech and talent for $116 million—but the AI Pin, once hyped as a smartphone alternative, is officially being shuttered.
Fortune (fortune.com)
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Yet they are too strapped for cash for raises or to not lay off workers.
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Those numbers seem odd to me. I feel like the truth is 1 billion was spent on productive programmers and hardware. The small remainder of 154 billion was used to improvise profit growth through totally valid payment to some CEOs ego account.
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The hype for AI is ridiculous:
HP acquiring parts of AI Pin startup Humane for $116 million
HP is acquiring Humane’s AI tech and talent for $116 million—but the AI Pin, once hyped as a smartphone alternative, is officially being shuttered.
Fortune (fortune.com)
They see Meta paying $200 mil or more to get a single employee and think about half that is a steal for a whole team of failed AI centric people
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Those numbers seem odd to me. I feel like the truth is 1 billion was spent on productive programmers and hardware. The small remainder of 154 billion was used to improvise profit growth through totally valid payment to some CEOs ego account.
Nobody seems to have noticed that the business model here is to funnel as much traffic and spend to the big AI corporations as possible with no foreseeable return (except vague nonsense about "productivity gains").
Just wait until someone requires one of these things to make a profit, that's when if you're a corporation that integrated this shit deeply into your business, you'll be covered top to bottom in rug burn from the inevitable rug pull of price increases.
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