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AI Chatbots Remain Overconfident — Even When They’re Wrong: Large Language Models appear to be unaware of their own mistakes, prompting concerns about common uses for AI chatbots.

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  • Nah so their definition is the classical "how confident are you that you got the answer right". If you read the article they asked a bunch of people and 4 LLMs a bunch of random questions, then asked the respondent whether they/it had confidence their answer was correct, and then checked the answer. The LLMs initially lined up with people (over confident) but then when they iterated, shared results and asked further questions the LLMs confidence increased while people's tends to decrease to mitigate the over confidence.

    But the study still assumes intelligence enough to review past results and adjust accordingly, but disregards the fact that an AI isnt intelligence, it's a word prediction model based on a data set of written text tending to infinity. It's not assessing validity of results, it's predicting what the answer is based on all previous inputs. The whole study is irrelevant.

    Well, not irrelevant. Lots of our world is trying to treat the LLM output as human-like output, so if human's are going to treat LLM output the same way they treat human generated content, then we have to characterize, for the people, how their expectations are broken in that context.

    So as weird as it may seem to treat a stastical content extrapolation engine in the context of social science, there's a great deal of the reality and investment that wants to treat it as "person equivalent" output and so it must be studied in that context, if for no other reason to demonstrate to people that it should be considered "weird".

  • If you don't know you are wrong, when you have been shown to be wrong, you are not intelligent. So A.I. has become "Adequate Intelligence".

    That definition seems a bit shaky. Trump & co. are mentally ill but they do have a minimum of intelligence.

  • I kid you not, early on (mid 2023) some guy mentioned using ChatGPT for his work and not even checking the output (he was in some sort of non-techie field that was still in the wheelhouse of text generation). I expresssed that LLMs can include some glaring mistakes and he said he fixed it by always including in his prompt "Do not hallucinate content and verify all data is actually correct.".

    Ah, well then, if he tells the bot to not hallucinate and validate output there's no reason to not trust the output. After all, you told the bot not to, and we all know that self regulation works without issue all of the time.

  • Ah, well then, if he tells the bot to not hallucinate and validate output there's no reason to not trust the output. After all, you told the bot not to, and we all know that self regulation works without issue all of the time.

    It gave me flashbacks when the Replit guy complained that the LLM deleted his data despite being told in all caps not to multiple times.

    People really really don't understand how these things work...

  • This happened to me the other day with Jippity. It outright lied to me:

    "You're absolutely right. Although I don't have access to the earlier parts of the conversation".

    So it says that I was right in a particular statement, but didn't actually know what I said. So I said to it, you just lied. It kept saying variations of:

    "I didn't lie intentionally"

    "I understand why it seems that way"

    "I wasn't misleading you"

    etc

    It flat out lied and tried to gaslight me into thinking I was in the wrong for taking that way.

    It didn’t lie to you or gaslight you because those are things that a person with agency does. Someone who lies to you makes a decision to deceive you for whatever reason they have. Someone who gaslights you makes a decision to behave like the truth as you know it is wrong in order to discombobulate you and make you question your reality.

    The only thing close to a decision that LLMs make is: what text can I generate that statistically looks similar to all the other text that I’ve been given. The only reason they answer questions is because in the training data they’ve been provided, questions are usually followed by answers.

    It’s not apologizing you to, it knows from its training data that sometimes accusations are followed by language that we interpret as an apology, and sometimes by language that we interpret as pushing back. It regurgitates these apologies without understanding anything, which is why they seem incredibly insincere - it has no ability to be sincere because it doesn’t have any thoughts.

    There is no thinking. There are no decisions. The more we anthropomorphize these statistical text generators, ascribing thoughts and feelings and decision making to them, the less we collectively understand what they are, and the more we fall into the trap of these AI marketers about how close we are to truly thinking machines.

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    About halfway through the article they quote a paper from 2023:

    Similarly, another study from 2023 found LLMs “hallucinated,” or produced incorrect information, in 69 to 88 percent of legal queries.

    The LLM space has been changing very quickly over the past few years. Yes, LLMs today still "hallucinate", but you're not doing anyone a service by reporting in 2025 the state of the field over 2 years before.

  • Some humans are not as smart as LLMs, I give them that.

    Nah every human is smarter than advanced autocomplete.

  • If you don't know you are wrong, when you have been shown to be wrong, you are not intelligent. So A.I. has become "Adequate Intelligence".

    As any modern computer system, LLMs are much better and smarter than us at certain tasks while terrible at others. You could say that having good memory and communication skills is part of what defines an intelligent person. Not everyone has those abilities, but LLMs do.

    My point is, there's nothing useful coming out of the arguments over the semantics of the word "intelligence".

  • It gave me flashbacks when the Replit guy complained that the LLM deleted his data despite being told in all caps not to multiple times.

    People really really don't understand how these things work...

    The people who make them don't really understand how they work either. They know how to train them and how the software works, but they don't really know how it comes up with the answers it comes up with. They just do a ron of trial and error. Correlation is all they really have. Which of course is how a lot of medical science works too. So they have good company.

  • Fun thing, when it gets the answer right, tell it is was wrong and then see it apologize and "correct" itself to give the wrong answer.

    In my experience it can, but it has been pretty uncommon. But I also don't usually ask questions with only one answer.

  • It didn’t lie to you or gaslight you because those are things that a person with agency does. Someone who lies to you makes a decision to deceive you for whatever reason they have. Someone who gaslights you makes a decision to behave like the truth as you know it is wrong in order to discombobulate you and make you question your reality.

    The only thing close to a decision that LLMs make is: what text can I generate that statistically looks similar to all the other text that I’ve been given. The only reason they answer questions is because in the training data they’ve been provided, questions are usually followed by answers.

    It’s not apologizing you to, it knows from its training data that sometimes accusations are followed by language that we interpret as an apology, and sometimes by language that we interpret as pushing back. It regurgitates these apologies without understanding anything, which is why they seem incredibly insincere - it has no ability to be sincere because it doesn’t have any thoughts.

    There is no thinking. There are no decisions. The more we anthropomorphize these statistical text generators, ascribing thoughts and feelings and decision making to them, the less we collectively understand what they are, and the more we fall into the trap of these AI marketers about how close we are to truly thinking machines.

    The only thing close to a decision that LLMs make is

    That's not true. An "if statement" is literally a decision tree.

    The only reason they answer questions is because in the training data they’ve been provided

    This is technically true for something like GPT-1. But it hasn't been true for the models trained in the last few years.

    it knows from its training data that sometimes accusations are followed by language that we interpret as an apology, and sometimes by language that we interpret as pushing back. It regurgitates these apologies without understanding anything, which is why they seem incredibly insincere

    It has a large amount of system prompts that alter default behaviour in certain situations. Such as not giving the answer on how to make a bomb. I'm fairly certain there are catches in place to not be overly apologetic to minimize any reputation harm and to reduce potential "liability" issues.

    And in that scenario, yes I'm being gaslite because a human told it to.

    There is no thinking

    Partially agree. There's no "thinking" in sentient or sapient sense. But there is thinking in the academic/literal definition sense.

    There are no decisions

    Absolutely false. The entire neural network is billions upon billions of decision trees.

    The more we anthropomorphize these statistical text generators, ascribing thoughts and feelings and decision making to them, the less we collectively understand what they are

    I promise you I know very well what LLMs and other AI systems are. They aren't alive, they do not have human or sapient level of intelligence, and they don't feel. I've actually worked in the AI field for a decade. I've trained countless models. I'm quite familiar with them.

    But "gaslighting" is a perfectly fine description of what I explained. The initial conditions were the same and the end result (me knowing the truth and getting irritated about it) were also the same.

  • They are not only unaware of their own mistakes, they are unaware of their successes. They are generating content that is, per their training corpus, consistent with the input. This gets eerie, and the 'uncanny valley' of the mistakes are all the more striking, but they are just generating content without concept of 'mistake' or' 'success' or the content being a model for something else and not just being a blend of stuff from the training data.

    For example:

    Me: Generate an image of a frog on a lilypad.
    LLM: I'll try to create that — a peaceful frog on a lilypad in a serene pond scene. The image will appear shortly below.

    <includes a perfectly credible picture of a frog on a lilypad, request successfully processed>

    Me (lying): That seems to have produced a frog under a lilypad instead of on top.
    LLM: Thanks for pointing that out! I'm generating a corrected version now with the frog clearly sitting on top of the lilypad. It’ll appear below shortly.

    <includes another perfectly credible picture>

    It didn't know anything about the picture, it just took the input at it's word. A human would have stopped to say "uhh... what do you mean, the lilypad is on water and frog is on top of that?" Or if the human were really trying to just do the request without clarification, they might have tried to think "maybe he wanted it from the perspective of a fish, and he wanted the frog underwater?". A human wouldn't have gone "you are right, I made a mistake, here I've tried again" and include almost the exact same thing.

    But tha training data isn't predominantly people blatantly lying about such obvious things or second guessing things that were done so obviously normally correct.

    The use of language like "unaware" when people are discussing LLMs drives me crazy. LLMs aren't "aware" of anything. They do not have a capacity for awareness in the first place.

    People need to stop taking about them using terms that imply thought or consciousness, because it subtly feeds into the idea that they are capable of such.

  • This Nobel Prize winner and subject matter expert takes the opposite view

    I watched this entire video just so that I could have an informed opinion. First off, this feels like two very separate talks:

    The first part is a decent breakdown of how artificial neural networks process information and store relational data about that information in a vast matrix of numerical weights that can later be used to perform some task. In the case of computer vision, those weights can be used to recognize objects in a picture or video streams, such as whether something is a hotdog or not.

    As a side note, if you look up Hinton’s 2024 Nobel Peace Prize in Physics, you’ll see that he won based on his work on the foundations of these neural networks and specifically, their training. He’s definitely an expert on the nuts and bolts about how neural networks work and how to train them.

    He then goes into linguistics and how language can be encoded in these neural networks, which is how large language models (LLMs) work… by breaking down words and phrases into tokens and then using the weights in these neural networks to encode how these words relate to each other. These connections are later used to generate other text output related to the text that is used as input. So far so good.

    At that point he points out these foundational building blocks have been used to lead to where we are now, at least in a very general sense. He then has what I consider the pivotal slide of the entire talk, labeled Large Language Models, which you can see at 17:22. In particular he has two questions at the bottom of the slide that are most relevant:

    • Are they genuinely intelligent?
    • Or are they just a form of glorified auto-complete that uses statistical regularities to pastiche together pieces of text that were created by other people?

    The problem is: he never answers these questions. He immediately moves on to his own theory about how language works using an analogy to LEGO bricks, and then completely disregards the work of linguists in understanding language, because what do those idiots know?

    At this point he brings up The long term existential threat and I would argue the rest of this talk is now science fiction, because it presupposes that understanding the relationship between words is all that is necessary for AI to become superintelligent and therefore a threat to all of us.

    Which goes back to the original problem in my opinion: LLMs are text generation machines. They use neural networks encoded as a matrix of weights that can be used to predict long strings of text based on other text. That’s it. You input some text, and it outputs other text based on that original text.

    We know that different parts of the brain have different responsibilities. Some parts are used to generate language, other parts store memories, still other parts are used to make our bodies move or regulate autonomous processes like our heartbeat and blood pressure. Still other bits are used to process images from our eyes and other parts reason about spacial awareness, while others engage in emotional regulation and processing.

    Saying that having a model for language means that we’ve built an artificial brain is like saying that because I built a round shape called a wheel means that I invented the modern automobile. It’s a small part of a larger whole, and although neural networks can be used to solve some very difficult problems, they’re only a specific tool that can be used to solve very specific tasks.

    Although Geoffrey Hinton is an incredibly smart man who mathematically understands neural networks far better than I ever will, extrapolating that knowledge out to believing that a large language model has any kind of awareness or actual intelligence is absurd. It’s the underpants gnome economic theory, but instead of:

    1. Collect underpants
    2. ?
    3. Profit!

    It looks more like:

    1. Use neural network training to construct large language models.
    2. ?
    3. Artificial general intelligence!

    If LLMs were true artificial intelligence, then they would be learning at an increasing rate as we give them more capacity, leading to the singularity as their intelligence reaches hockey stick exponential growth. Instead, we’ve been throwing a growing amount resources at these LLMs for increasingly smaller returns. We’ve thrown a few extra tricks into the mix, like “reasoning”, but beyond that, I believe it’s clear that we’re headed towards a local maximum that is far enough away from intelligence that would be truly useful (and represent an actual existential threat), but in actuality only resembles what a human can output well enough to fool human decision makers into trusting them to solve problems that they are incapable of solving.

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    There goes middle management

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    Oh god I just figured it out.

    It was never they are good at their tasks, faster, or more money efficient.

    They are just confident to stupid people.

    Christ, it's exactly the same failing upwards that produced the c suite. They've just automated the process.

  • Oh god I just figured it out.

    It was never they are good at their tasks, faster, or more money efficient.

    They are just confident to stupid people.

    Christ, it's exactly the same failing upwards that produced the c suite. They've just automated the process.

    Oh good, so that means we can just replace the C-suite with LLMs then, right? Right?

    An AI won't need a Golden Parachute when they inevitably fuck it all up.

  • The use of language like "unaware" when people are discussing LLMs drives me crazy. LLMs aren't "aware" of anything. They do not have a capacity for awareness in the first place.

    People need to stop taking about them using terms that imply thought or consciousness, because it subtly feeds into the idea that they are capable of such.

    Okay fine, the LLM does not take into account in the context of its prompt that yada yada. Happy now word police, or do I need to pay a fine too? The real problem is people are replacing their brains with chatbots owned by the rich so soon their thoughts and by extension the truth will be owned by the rich, but go off pat yourself on the back because you preserved your holy sentience spook for another day.

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    People should understand that words like "unaware" or "overconfident" are not even applicable to these pieces of software. We might build intelligent machines in the future but if you know how these large language models work, it is obvious that it doesn't even make sense to talk about the awareness, intelligence, or confidence of such systems.

  • People should understand that words like "unaware" or "overconfident" are not even applicable to these pieces of software. We might build intelligent machines in the future but if you know how these large language models work, it is obvious that it doesn't even make sense to talk about the awareness, intelligence, or confidence of such systems.

    I find it so incredibly frustrating that we've gotten to the point where the "marketing guys" are not only in charge, but are believed without question, that what they say is true until proven otherwise.

    "AI" becoming the colloquial term for LLMs and them being treated as a flawed intelligence instead of interesting generative constructs is purely in service of people selling them as such. And it's maddening. Because they're worthless for that purpose.

  • I watched this entire video just so that I could have an informed opinion. First off, this feels like two very separate talks:

    The first part is a decent breakdown of how artificial neural networks process information and store relational data about that information in a vast matrix of numerical weights that can later be used to perform some task. In the case of computer vision, those weights can be used to recognize objects in a picture or video streams, such as whether something is a hotdog or not.

    As a side note, if you look up Hinton’s 2024 Nobel Peace Prize in Physics, you’ll see that he won based on his work on the foundations of these neural networks and specifically, their training. He’s definitely an expert on the nuts and bolts about how neural networks work and how to train them.

    He then goes into linguistics and how language can be encoded in these neural networks, which is how large language models (LLMs) work… by breaking down words and phrases into tokens and then using the weights in these neural networks to encode how these words relate to each other. These connections are later used to generate other text output related to the text that is used as input. So far so good.

    At that point he points out these foundational building blocks have been used to lead to where we are now, at least in a very general sense. He then has what I consider the pivotal slide of the entire talk, labeled Large Language Models, which you can see at 17:22. In particular he has two questions at the bottom of the slide that are most relevant:

    • Are they genuinely intelligent?
    • Or are they just a form of glorified auto-complete that uses statistical regularities to pastiche together pieces of text that were created by other people?

    The problem is: he never answers these questions. He immediately moves on to his own theory about how language works using an analogy to LEGO bricks, and then completely disregards the work of linguists in understanding language, because what do those idiots know?

    At this point he brings up The long term existential threat and I would argue the rest of this talk is now science fiction, because it presupposes that understanding the relationship between words is all that is necessary for AI to become superintelligent and therefore a threat to all of us.

    Which goes back to the original problem in my opinion: LLMs are text generation machines. They use neural networks encoded as a matrix of weights that can be used to predict long strings of text based on other text. That’s it. You input some text, and it outputs other text based on that original text.

    We know that different parts of the brain have different responsibilities. Some parts are used to generate language, other parts store memories, still other parts are used to make our bodies move or regulate autonomous processes like our heartbeat and blood pressure. Still other bits are used to process images from our eyes and other parts reason about spacial awareness, while others engage in emotional regulation and processing.

    Saying that having a model for language means that we’ve built an artificial brain is like saying that because I built a round shape called a wheel means that I invented the modern automobile. It’s a small part of a larger whole, and although neural networks can be used to solve some very difficult problems, they’re only a specific tool that can be used to solve very specific tasks.

    Although Geoffrey Hinton is an incredibly smart man who mathematically understands neural networks far better than I ever will, extrapolating that knowledge out to believing that a large language model has any kind of awareness or actual intelligence is absurd. It’s the underpants gnome economic theory, but instead of:

    1. Collect underpants
    2. ?
    3. Profit!

    It looks more like:

    1. Use neural network training to construct large language models.
    2. ?
    3. Artificial general intelligence!

    If LLMs were true artificial intelligence, then they would be learning at an increasing rate as we give them more capacity, leading to the singularity as their intelligence reaches hockey stick exponential growth. Instead, we’ve been throwing a growing amount resources at these LLMs for increasingly smaller returns. We’ve thrown a few extra tricks into the mix, like “reasoning”, but beyond that, I believe it’s clear that we’re headed towards a local maximum that is far enough away from intelligence that would be truly useful (and represent an actual existential threat), but in actuality only resembles what a human can output well enough to fool human decision makers into trusting them to solve problems that they are incapable of solving.

    believing that a large language model has any kind of awareness or actual intelligence is absurd

    I (as a person who works professionally in the area and tries to keep up with the current academic publications) happen to agree with you. But my credences are somewhat reduced after considering the points Hinton raises.

    I think it is worth considering that there are a handful of academically active models of consciousness; some well-respected ones like the CTM are not at all inconsistent with Hinton's statements

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    Actually, nope! Claiming that you personally didn't learn with an IDE and that there are make-believe scenarios where one is not available is not actually addressing the argument. There really aren't any situations that make any sense at all where an IDE is not available. I've worked in literally the most strict and locked down environments in the world, and there is always approved software and tools to use... because duh! Of course there is, silly, work needs to get done. Unless you're talking about a coding 101 class or something academic and basic. Anyway, that's totally irrelevant regardless, because its PURE fantasy to have access to something like Claude and not have access to an IDE. So your argument is entirely flawed and invalid.
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    Got it, at that point (extremely high voltage) you'd need suppression at the panel. Which I would hope people have inline, but not expect like an LVD.
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