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Yet again, a free open-source Chinese AI has beaten all the investor-funded favorites like OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, etc.

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  • cross-posted from: https://futurology.today/post/5555646

    If you tend towards conspiracy theory-type thinking, you might wonder if the Chinese government is directing its AI sector to use open-source AI to undermine US AI efforts. If they aren't, is it just a coincidence that this is what is happening?

    Two things seem inevitable to me if the trend of Chinese open-source AI equalling Western efforts keeps up. A) - It will eventually bankrupt the Western AI companies and their investors, as the hundreds of billions poured into them will never be realized in profits. B) The 21st century will be built on Chinese AI, as it will be what most of the world uses.

    The former seems more dramatic in the short term, but the latter is what will be more significant in the long term.

    Moonshot AI just released Kimi K2: China is not so behind in Agentic AI either it would seem.

  • cross-posted from: https://futurology.today/post/5555646

    If you tend towards conspiracy theory-type thinking, you might wonder if the Chinese government is directing its AI sector to use open-source AI to undermine US AI efforts. If they aren't, is it just a coincidence that this is what is happening?

    Two things seem inevitable to me if the trend of Chinese open-source AI equalling Western efforts keeps up. A) - It will eventually bankrupt the Western AI companies and their investors, as the hundreds of billions poured into them will never be realized in profits. B) The 21st century will be built on Chinese AI, as it will be what most of the world uses.

    The former seems more dramatic in the short term, but the latter is what will be more significant in the long term.

    Moonshot AI just released Kimi K2: China is not so behind in Agentic AI either it would seem.

    Nice. Can't wait for an abliterated non-censored version to get dropped

  • cross-posted from: https://futurology.today/post/5555646

    If you tend towards conspiracy theory-type thinking, you might wonder if the Chinese government is directing its AI sector to use open-source AI to undermine US AI efforts. If they aren't, is it just a coincidence that this is what is happening?

    Two things seem inevitable to me if the trend of Chinese open-source AI equalling Western efforts keeps up. A) - It will eventually bankrupt the Western AI companies and their investors, as the hundreds of billions poured into them will never be realized in profits. B) The 21st century will be built on Chinese AI, as it will be what most of the world uses.

    The former seems more dramatic in the short term, but the latter is what will be more significant in the long term.

    Moonshot AI just released Kimi K2: China is not so behind in Agentic AI either it would seem.

    China’s government is absolutely bankrolling the AI efforts there, just as the US government is openly bankrolling efforts here in the US. It would be dumb for them not to. The Cold War of AI is upon us.

    I’m not sure western AI companies will go bankrupt due to China’s models winning, though. There are plenty of security focused “we can’t use foreign AI” things that would keep them afloat, especially as not everyone needs the absolute most cutting edge AI for their stuff and many US and EU companies are self hosting tuned models for their customers needed.

    There’s, of course, the fact that most of it at the moment is a giant bubble that will eventually pop as the next big thing takes its place in importance for world dominance. Will AI continue to find a place in the tech stack? Definitely. New models, tweaks for niche use cases and huge benefits for specialized industries, etc. Will newer tech and processes usurp it over the long run, absolutely. That’s just the way Tech has always worked.

  • China’s government is absolutely bankrolling the AI efforts there, just as the US government is openly bankrolling efforts here in the US. It would be dumb for them not to. The Cold War of AI is upon us.

    I’m not sure western AI companies will go bankrupt due to China’s models winning, though. There are plenty of security focused “we can’t use foreign AI” things that would keep them afloat, especially as not everyone needs the absolute most cutting edge AI for their stuff and many US and EU companies are self hosting tuned models for their customers needed.

    There’s, of course, the fact that most of it at the moment is a giant bubble that will eventually pop as the next big thing takes its place in importance for world dominance. Will AI continue to find a place in the tech stack? Definitely. New models, tweaks for niche use cases and huge benefits for specialized industries, etc. Will newer tech and processes usurp it over the long run, absolutely. That’s just the way Tech has always worked.

    The Chinese government is more hands on with businesses than the US. Like, they even put members of the government onto the company's board.

    That's the sort of behavior that makes me suspect that a lot of Chinese businesses are intentionally operating at a loss at the direction of the CCP to undercut international business.

    American politicians do similar things, but it's more about corruption rewarding companies who support politicians. China is doing it much more pointedly and deliberately. That's why they're seeing such good results lately.

  • China’s government is absolutely bankrolling the AI efforts there, just as the US government is openly bankrolling efforts here in the US. It would be dumb for them not to. The Cold War of AI is upon us.

    I’m not sure western AI companies will go bankrupt due to China’s models winning, though. There are plenty of security focused “we can’t use foreign AI” things that would keep them afloat, especially as not everyone needs the absolute most cutting edge AI for their stuff and many US and EU companies are self hosting tuned models for their customers needed.

    There’s, of course, the fact that most of it at the moment is a giant bubble that will eventually pop as the next big thing takes its place in importance for world dominance. Will AI continue to find a place in the tech stack? Definitely. New models, tweaks for niche use cases and huge benefits for specialized industries, etc. Will newer tech and processes usurp it over the long run, absolutely. That’s just the way Tech has always worked.

    The US is not "openly bankrolling" any AI companies. The closest thing would be OpenAI's recent contract with the military:

    Whereas China is definitely funding AI efforts in their country because they're communist (sort of). That's literally how communism works: The government funds stuff.

    China isn't really communist in the traditional sense but they definitely use government funds to prop up business they feel will give the country a strategic advantage. They do this directly (here's a check to pay people) and indirectly (we'll subsidize all shipping for your business and make sure you get sweetheart deals with other businesses you rely on).

    The Chinese government is in the business of picking winners and losers in the market and they're open about it. It's not a secret. That's literally how their government is setup.

    The US has ways of picking winners but they're not nearly as direct and there's a whole lot of rules that must be followed or competitors will sue and win. Then the whole process falls apart.

    TL;DR: You're directly wrong and you're framing the story wrong as well.

    Aside: If OpenAI goes bankrupt after wasting billions of rich investor dollars the citizens of the US will not have lost billions as a result. Whereas in China...

  • The Chinese government is more hands on with businesses than the US. Like, they even put members of the government onto the company's board.

    That's the sort of behavior that makes me suspect that a lot of Chinese businesses are intentionally operating at a loss at the direction of the CCP to undercut international business.

    American politicians do similar things, but it's more about corruption rewarding companies who support politicians. China is doing it much more pointedly and deliberately. That's why they're seeing such good results lately.

    They're also making electric cars that undercut the competition by about 20k in price. Of course they're running a loss on purpose.

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    That's not as clever as you think it is.
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    When it comes to public outreach, the question is more “why not?”
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    eyekaytee@aussie.zoneE
    They will say something like solar went from 600gw to 1000 thats a 66% increase this year and coal only increased 40% except coal is 3600gw to 6400. Hrmmmm, maybe these numbers are outdated? Based on this coal and gas are down: In Q1 2025, solar generation rose 48% compared to the same period in 2024. Solar power reached 254 TWh, making up 10% of total electricity. This was the largest increase among all clean energy sources. Coal-fired electricity dropped by 4%, falling to 1,421 TWh. Gas-fired power also went down by 4%, reaching 67 TWh https://carboncredits.com/china-sets-clean-energy-record-in-early-2025-with-951-tw/ are no where close to what is required to meet their climate goals Which ones in particular are you talking about? Trump signs executive order directing US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — again https://apnews.com/article/trump-paris-agreement-climate-change-788907bb89fe307a964be757313cdfb0 China vowed on Tuesday to continue participating in two cornerstone multinational arrangements -- the World Health Organization and Paris climate accord -- after newly sworn-in US President Donald Trump ordered withdrawals from them. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250121-china-says-committed-to-who-paris-climate-deal-after-us-pulls-out What's that saying? You hate it when the person you hate is doing good? I can't remember what it is I can't fault them for what they're doing at the moment, even if they are run by an evil dictatorship and do pollute the most I’m not sure how european defense spending is relevant It suggests there is money available in the bank to fund solar/wind/battery, but instead they are preparing for? something? what? who knows. France can make a fighter jet at home but not solar panels apparently. Prehaps they would be made in a country with environmental and labour laws if governments legislated properly to prevent companies outsourcing manufacturing. However this doesnt absolve china. China isnt being forced at Gunpoint to produce these goods with low labour regulation and low environmental regulation. You're right, it doesn't absolve china, and I avoid purchasing things from them wherever possible, my solar panels and EV were made in South Korea, my home battery was made in Germany, there are only a few things in my house made in China, most of them I got second hand but unfortunately there is no escaping the giant of manufacturing. With that said it's one thing for me to sit here and tut tut at China, but I realise I am not most people, the most clearest example is the extreme anti-ai, anti-billionaire bias on this platform, in real life most people don't give a fuck, they love Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple etc, they can't go a day without them. So I consider myself a realist, if you want people to buy your stuff then you will need to make the conditions possible for them to WANT to buy your stuff, not out of some moral lecture and Europe isn't doing that, if we look at energy prices: Can someone actually point out to me where this comes from? ... At the end of the day energy is a small % of EU household spending I was looking at corporate/business energy use: Major European companies are already moving to cut costs and retain their competitive edge. For example, Thyssenkrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, said on Monday it would slash 11,000 jobs in its steel division by 2030, in a major corporate reshuffle. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/High-Energy-Costs-Continue-to-Plague-European-Industry.html Prices have since fallen but are still high compared to other countries. A poll by Germany's DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce of around 3,300 companies showed that 37% were considering cutting production or moving abroad, up from 31% last year and 16% in 2022. For energy-intensive industrial firms some 45% of companies were mulling slashing output or relocation, the survey showed. "The trust of the German economy in energy policy is severely damaged," Achim Dercks, DIHK deputy chief executive said, adding that the government had not succeeded in providing companies with a perspective for reliable and affordable energy supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/more-german-companies-mull-relocation-due-high-energy-prices-survey-2024-08-01/ I've seen nothing to suggest energy prices in the EU are SO cheap that it's worth moving manufacturing TO Europe, and this is what annoys me the most. I've pointed this out before but they have an excellent report on the issues: https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The+future+of+European+competitiveness+_+A+competitiveness+strategy+for+Europe.pdf Then they put out this Competitive Compass: https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-competitiveness/competitiveness-compass_en But tbh every week in the EU it seems like they are chasing after some other goal. This would be great, it would have been greater 10 years ago. Agreed
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