Isn't this just the tech industry. Run at a loss. Eat VC money. Wait. Wait.

Some how you become normalized and suddenly important Next thing you know you're raking profit.

Like the guy that has no friends who nobody really likes. He won't go away. He just sticks around. Nobody ever told him to fuck off. So he's just part of the group.

A lot of startups whose entire business model relies on OpenAI's small model API calls costing under $1/Mtok, are going to go bust when OpenAI finally runs out of money and ramps the cost up tenfold.

yeah secondary knockon effects - once nvidia realizes it's not going to actually sell 5 gpus per human being, the datacenters for them evaporate, then the power production to feed those datacenters becomes pointless....

an effective administration would mandate all renewable energy for this purpose, so when it implodes they could at least derive a benefit from the expanded production... but no, trump will have them build coal plants for it all. or like grok, methane powered generators fml

There is another factor in this which often gets overlooked. A LOT of the money invested right now is for the Nvidia chips and products based around them. As many gamers are painfully aware, these chips devalue very quickly. With the progress of technology moving so fast, what was once a top of the line unit gets outclassed by mid tier hardware within a couple of years. After 5 years it's usefulness is severely diminished and after 10 years it is hardly worth the energy to run them.

This means the window for return on investment is a lot shorter than usual in tech. For example when creating a software service, there would be an upfront investment for buying the startup that created the software. Then some scaling investment in infrastructure and such. But after that it turns into a steady state where the input of money is a lot lower than revenue from the customer base that was grown. This allows to get returns on investment for many years after that initial investment and growth phase.

With this Ai shit it works a bit different. If you want to train and run the latest models in order to remain competitive in the market, you would need to continually buy the latest hardware from Nvidia. As soon as you start running on older hardware, your product would be left behind and with all the competition out there users would be lost very quickly. It's very hard to see how the trillions of dollars invested now are ever going to be recovered within the span of five years. Especially in a time where so much companies are dumping their products for very low prices and sometimes even for free.

This bubble has to burst and it is going to be bad. For the people who were around when the dotcom bubble burst, this is going to be much worse than that ever was.

It will be good for nerds who want to run models locally. Definitely not a huge maker tho

Yeah, it’s basically like early days of cable, Uber, Instacart, streaming, etc. They have a lot of capital and are running at a loss to capture the market. Once companies have secured a customer base, they start jacking up the prices.

and they are even considering extremely expensive nuclear plants to power them.

Lemmy us pretty much all is use right now. I don't know anyone espousing a. I.

It ain't a social media bubble.

Lemmy us pretty much all is use right now. I don't know anyone espousing a. I.

It ain't a social media bubble.

If people dont like ai, why do all of my coworkers and family members constantly reference ai?

Seriously, yall mfs here on lemmy have the strangest social media bubbles.

Price is essentially zero if you just run it locally

Price is essentially zero if you just run it locally

Only one source of social media? That kinda sounds like the definition of a social media bubble...

I oughta know, I'm also in the Lemmy only bubble and am completely out of touch with most people.

Brother in christ you literally described a bubble.

Current gen models got less accurate and hallucinated at a higher rate compared to the last ones, from experience and from openai. I think it's either because they're trying to see how far they can squeeze the models, or because it's starting to eat its own slop found while crawling.

https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/2221c875-02dc-4789-800b-e7758f3722c1/o3-and-o4-mini-system-card.pdf

Lol. Let me explain.

For over 20 years I worked as a developer and an SEO

I was layer off two years ago. Still out of work except for a contract here and there.

In that time I have reduced my social media consumption. I find my head us clearer, my days a bit brighter and problems either don't occur as often are more easily dealt with on a clear manner

I honestly have come to the conclusion that social media is now directly causing most problems we have, or at least exacerbates them.

So i intentionally limit myself to this, and I guess YouTube( though I only use it to post videos for the business I'm trying to get off the ground

Otherwise, life's easier without it

I watch actual news on tv newspapers, etc.

Have i done surveys, no. Have I seen the percent that subscribe, yes. I can only talk from my experience of my bubble. However, it bears up to the finances and the criticisms I've seen.

People like the idea and like that or can be a time saver for things like writing an email or resume etc. Managers like that it is purported to save money. The reality seems to be that it doesn't, or at least doesn't save much, based on studies.

I know people who love it and use it at work all the time for research with reference to internal info. I know people for whom it's banned and they need to document that ai was not used.

I know parents that use it when doing projects with their kids to save time but they worry that it circumvents the point of the project.

I don't know anyone that subscribes personally. From my perspective, most companies seem to be pushing very hard to get users. If their product was great, they wouldn't need to. There is no network effect like with recem fast spreading tech.

I should have phrases better. People don't like ai enough to pay for it and it's costly to run.

in this case there isnt customer base for AI, only ceo and c-suites are.

The companies that enshittify their service never actually care about their premium service. They provide a service which is good enough for free users and a pro version for power users. Later once they amass a critical userbase, they slowly make their free service shitty and ask users to pay to get their good-enough service back. Free users were their focus all along and these premium users are there just to pay some of their costs.